The 12-team College Football Playoff field is taking shape. We’re just at the midway point, but we certainly know a lot about every team across the nation at this point.
If the season ended now, we know who would earn the top 12 spots and where they would come from. So, let’s be responsible here, and simulate the data we have at hand to generate the 12-team College Football Playoff Field now.
Projecting the Top 12 College Football Playoff Teams
It’s easy at the top, but as we get into the nitty gritty, it gets a bit more interesting, for sure. Let’s use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as our guiding light and let it simulate through the season to project the 12-team field.
This is a proprietary simulation, built by yours truly, that analyzes each team’s current schedule, roster makeup, and future opponents and simulates the remaining games of the season no less than 10,000 times to generate results. Reminder, this is how the seeding would be done, not how the top teams are aligned on our Power Rankings.
Check out the full 2024 College Football Playoff picture using the Football Playoff Meter.
Here’s how the top 12 would align now:
1) Oregon Ducks
The owners of the No. 1 seed are riding high following a successful defense of their home turf in Week 7. The Oregon Ducks own the top seed in this simulation by winning the Big Ten and standing at 13-0. They also get the No. 1 seed here because they have the top probability in terms of making the playoffs.
Highest ‘Make Playoff Percentage’ in CFB:
- 1) Oregon: 98.1%
- 2) Penn State: 87.2%
- 3) Texas: 81.8%
- 4) BYU: 68.4%
- 5) Iowa State: 58.6%
The Ducks have a Heisman moment and a marquee win combined with their undefeated record and high likelihood they finish undefeated. Everything is coming up Ducks.
Toughest Remaining Game: @ Michigan
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
2) Texas Longhorns
In this, the Texas Longhorns win the SEC and land the No. 2 seed. Gone are the days that we can guarantee the winner of the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt and lands the No. 1 seed. If undefeated at 13-0, the conversation gets very interesting for a team like Texas to stack up next to a team like Oregon at 13-0 for the top two seeds. We’ll get there when we get there .. if we get there.
With the way they handled their arch rival Oklahoma Sooners, it should be no surprise that they’re the No. 1 or No. 2 team in terms of everyone’s national rankings. The Longhorns are a well-coached, balanced team with the ability to win in all facets of the game.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 8 vs. Georgia
3) Miami Hurricanes
On a bye week in Week 7, the Miami Hurricanes saw their make-playoff probability take a bit of a hit, but that’s only because of how good Clemson was. At this point, however, we’ve changed our tune to more of a “it’s possible that two ACC teams can make it, not just one” than we ever have.
Miami gets the No. 3 seed in this simulation, knocking off a 11-1 Clemson team in the process to win the ACC (more on Clemson below). Cam Ward is playing lights out when necessary, and the Hurricanes have two scares behind them.
It’s relatively smooth sailing for the ‘Canes from here on out, just a game against rival Florida State on the horizon that might cause for some concern. But with the way FSU is playing, they get their toughest remaining game out of the way in Week 8.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 8 @ Louisville
4) BYU Cougars
The BYU Cougars are riding high after a dominant showing in Week 7, winning their past two against tough opponents, at Baylor and hosting Arizona. Their schedule is incredibly favorable, and they should have a large advantage in terms of the spread of Vegas in each of their remaining games.
The toughest remaining game on the Cougars’ schedule is the Holy War against Utah (the way it should be, to be honest), and the Cougars are eyeing the Big 12 Championship.
In this simulation, they knock off Iowa State, whom they don’t have a date with in the regular season, to win the Big 12 and earn the last spot of the conference champion bye weeks.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 10 @ Utah
5) Ohio State Buckeyes
The CFN FPM doesn’t indicate which of the remaining two Big Ten teams is the runner-up of the Big Ten Championship, but it does indicate that the big three in the Big Ten have the highest chance of representing the conference, even more so than any three in the SEC do.
However, in this simulation, Ohio State falls to Oregon once again in the Big Ten Championship Game, but previous wins against Michigan and Penn State push them into the No. 5 seed here. The Buckeyes are every bit one of the best teams in the country, and this could potentially set up multiple rematches that would be must-watch TV in the playoffs.
OSU still controls their destiny in terms of the Big Ten race, and those wins against Michigan and Penn State would do great for their Strength of Victory.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 10 @ Utah
6) Penn State Nittany Lions
An 11-1 Penn State team would be a scary foe in the playoffs for any team. An 11-1 Penn State team hosting a Playoff game in December? That’s even more terrifying.
The CFN FPM sim data shows that the Nittany Lions drop their game to Ohio State at home, barely, and miss out on the Big Ten Championship in the process. However, that essentially gives them a bye week in early December as they await their team who ventures to Happy Valley in mid/late December.
The Big Ten would be nice, but advancing through the Playoffs would certainly be nicer for James Franklin and Co.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 10 vs. Ohio State
7) Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs have the top probability to make the Playoffs of the teams with one-loss already in the SEC. That includes against Alabama, whom the Bulldogs lost to. However, this simulation indicates that Georgia drops a game to Texas in this scenario, and subsequently knocks them out of the SEC Championship Game.
Likely or unlikely as that may be, the fact of the matter is, a 10-2 Georgia team not in the SEC Championship Game could still host a College Football Playoff game. That’s exactly what they do in this scenario as they hold a higher percentage chance to make the playoffs, make the national championship, and win the national championship than Alabama right now.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 8 vs. Texas
8) Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide makes the SEC Championship Game in this simulation. They do, however, falter and ultimately fall to the Texas Longhorns as well.
That gives them a late loss in the eyes of voters and sticks them with a lower ranking than Georgia, who they beat. Obviously, the simulation data can’t interject for the opinions of the humans in the Playoff Committee room, but it does showcase the fact that can still potentially host a Playoff game even with a loss in the SEC Championship Game.
The Tide has to get over the meat of their schedule, however, that includes some tough outings from here on out.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 10 @ LSU
9) Iowa State Cyclones
The Big 12 runner-up finishes in the top 12 in this simulation and the Iowa State Cyclones would travel to Tuscaloosa to battle Alabama in the opening round of the Playoffs. Iowa State has quietly put forth a pretty dominant season to date, and have some marquee moments ahead of them potentially.
The CFN FPM puts the Cyclones with a 58.6% chance at making the Playoffs and a 14.3% chance at winning the Big 12, just behind BYU at the top.
Iowa State has to get through a relatively easy schedule until the second-to-last week of the year when they travel to Salt Lake City.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 13 @ Utah
10) Clemson Tigers
The Clemson Tigers have produced nothing but dominance ever since a season-opening loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. Clemson’s offense looks like it’s finally caught its stride in 2024 and Cade Klubnik is playing the best football.
In this simulation, Clemson makes the ACC Championship Game as an 11-1 team, winning 11 straight to get there. Faltering against Miami still gives them the 10th seed in the Playoffs, earning their way with dominance over every ACC opponent in their path.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 12 @ Pittsburgh
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11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The first — and only — of the at-large bids to a non-Power conference team goes to Notre Dame. It’s hard to say with Notre Dame’s schedule, a bad loss to Northern Illinois included, that the Fighting Irish wouldn’t make it if they win the rest of their games. And that’s what this simulation shows.
The Irish win each of their remaining six games, including wins over Navy and Army (who entered unbeaten in these simulations) as well as USC and Florida State. At 11-1, the Irish make the Playoffs but have to travel to Penn State when the Playoffs open.
Toughest Game Remaining: Week 14 vs. USC
12) James Madison Dukes
The Group of Five representative, more often than not in the CFN FPM, is the James Madison Dukes. Despite a loss to UL-Monroe earlier this season, the Dukes have been more than impressive in Bob Chesney’s first season at the helm.
Using the CFN FPM data, it projects JMU to finish the rest of the season unblemished and win the Sun Belt. It’s a tight race for the Group of Five automatic bid into the Playoffs and the sim data likes the roadmap for JMU more than it does for UNLV or Boise State, given they’ll likely have to play each other twice before the season is over.
Splitting hairs and dropping games late in the season will do no favors for the G5 clergy, and JMU has the best shot at winning the best way out, according to the simulation.
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