After an enthralling weekend of action, 12 undefeated college football teams remain. Can any of those programs run the table and emerge with a perfect record at the end of the 2024 campaign? According to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, several teams have more than a 20% chance of avoiding defeat down the stretch of the season.
College Football Undefeated Teams Ranked
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for the undefeated college football teams winning their remaining games.
- Miami Hurricanes – 27.6%
- Oregon Ducks – 26.1%
- Texas Longhorns – 22.5%
- Liberty Flames – 21.8%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 19.8%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 15.9%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 5.6%
- BYU Cougars – 5.1%
- Army Black Knights – 5%
- Iowa State Cyclones – 4.6%
- Pittsburgh Panthers – 1.2%
- Navy Midshipmen – 1%
Miami (FL) Hurricanes – 27.6%
For the second successive week, the Miami Hurricanes overcame a substantial obstacle to maintain and extend their undefeated run. In Week 5, they withstood a last-second Hail Mary attempt to defeat the Virginia Tech Hokies, and then in Week 6, with the eyes of the nation upon them, they overcame a huge deficit to take down the California Golden Bears on the West Coast.
As a result, Mario Cristobal’s team remains the frontrunner in the ACC, with a 36.5% chance of winning the conference. They’re favored to win all their remaining matchups, with the October 19 trip to Louisville to face Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals looming as the most difficult game on the rest of the schedule. Avoiding an in-form Clemson team in the regular season is key to them emerging as the best of the undefeated college football teams.
Oregon Ducks – 26.1%
It hasn’t always been pretty, and it hasn’t always been convincing, but the Oregon Ducks have routinely found a way to get the job done this year. They were expected to be a challenger at the top of the Big Ten ahead of the season, and Dan Lanning’s team enters Week 7 as one of the best undefeated college football teams there is, with a 26.1% chance of winning out.
While that might sound highly optimistic, given they have to play the Ohio State Buckeyes in a heavily competitive Big Ten conference, the CFN FPM actually projects the spread line to be narrowly in Oregon’s favor (-2) with a 52.8% chance of beating the Buckeyes. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads the nation in completion percentage and is on track to beat the all-time passing yard record.
Texas Longhorns – 22.5%
The Texas Longhorns sat back on their bye week and watched the college football chaos unfold before them. However, Steve Sarkisian’s team wasn’t immune from the collateral damage of a crazy Week 6. Their chances of going undefeated through the season reduced from 31.3% ahead of the week to 22.5% heading into Week 7. However, they remain favorites to win the SEC with a 25.1% shot of winning the conference.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Texas currently boasts the seventh-ranked scoring offense in the nation, paired with the number two scoring defense in all of college football. Having allowed just one sack per game, they have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and only three teams in the country have converted more red zone possessions into a touchdown. The Week 6 performances of Vanderbilt and Texas A&M impact their chances of winning out, but the clash with Georgia remains the marquee game of their inaugural SEC campaign.
Liberty Flames – 21.8%
Hurricane Helene washed away the most difficult game on the Liberty Flames’ schedule, leaving them with the easiest run to the end of the year and a 21.2% chance of going undefeated for the second consecutive season. Jamey Chadwell’s team now has the easiest strength of schedule in the country and is favored to win every matchup that stretches out in front of them.
The Flames’ toughest test will come on Nov. 23 against a resurgent Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team that will likely serve as a preview of the CUSA Championship Game. With a top-50 scoring offense led by highly-regarded quarterback Kaidon Salter and a similarly ranked defense, Liberty has established itself as one of the top programs at the Group of Five level.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 19.8%
Another week, another efficient win, and the Penn State Nittany Lions are emerging as a legitimate college football contender. After taking down the UCLA Bruins in Week 6, James Franklin’s team now has a 19.8% chance of going undefeated through a 2024 college football campaign where they’re freed from the confines of a Big Ten divisional system that rendered them a perennial bridesmaid.
Over the next four weeks, the Nittany Lions have to travel to the West Coast (USC) and the frozen north (Wisconsin) before facing third-ranked Ohio State. The fact that the game on November 2 is at home is a significant boost for Penn State, and although they’re currently projected a loss to the Buckeyes, it’s essentially a pick ’em that could go either way. Drew Allar is balling. The defense is swarming. Can Franklin finally get a big game win?
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