College football scheduling in 2024 can take on many forms from team to team. Some teams load up the non-conference slate with marquee matchups while others take a less entertaining approach, loading up the front of the schedule with lower-tier games to ease into a season.
The Ohio State Buckeyes took the latter approach, coasting through their non-conference schedule with little resistance. That changes Saturday as the Buckeyes take on a resurgent Iowa Hawkeyes team. Can the Buckeyes pass their first real test? Before you bet, check out our Iowa vs. Ohio State prediction.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa +18 - Spread
Iowa +21 - Moneyline
Ohio State -2100, Iowa +1100 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, nine mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The spread opened at Ohio State -21.5 and hasn’t moved much in the last few hours, though it could tick down a couple more points in the coming days.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
DraftKings has the total at 44.5 and have the Buckeyes as -2100 favorites, with the Hawkeyes +1100 to pull off the outright upset. The combination of spread and total implies the Buckeyes will win a game in the 33-12 range.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit kinder to the Hawkeyes than the Vegas line, putting Iowa just under 18-point underdogs. That translates to just an 8.7% win probability. If they were able to pull off an upset, their expected win total for the season would jump nearly one win. The Hawkeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Ohio State: 8.7%
- vs. Washington: 64.1%
- at Michigan State: 64.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 87.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 65.1%
- at UCLA: 73.8%
- at Maryland: 55.6%
- vs. Nebraska: 58.9%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 91.3% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would not have a huge effect on its expected win total for the season. The Buckeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Iowa: 91.3%
- at Oregon: 47.2%
- vs. Nebraska: 92.3%
- at Penn State: 50.6%
- vs. Purdue: 96.6%
- at Northwestern: 96.3%
- vs. Indiana: 90.8%
- vs. Michigan: 82.8%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Ohio State
Iowa can’t play a big game without the offense (or lack thereof) being mentioned frequently. The Hawkeyes have been better this season on that side of the ball, but it’s hard to discern if there’s a meaningful difference in overall talent and playcalling, or if Kaleb Johnson and a weak schedule have simply masked the problems.
The focus is always on the Buckeyes’ offense, but the defense has quietly been one of the best in the country. The Buckeyes are allowing less than seven points a game, albeit against inferior competition, and it’s hard to imagine Iowa’s offense faring much better on Saturday.
So, assuming the Buckeye defense takes care of business, it’s a question of whether the offense can consistently move the ball.
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The individual talent, especially at the skill positions for the Buckeyes, is tantalizing. The Buckeyes will want to get out to a lead and force Cade McNamara to throw from behind. To do that, they’ll likely go to Jeremiah Smith, Quinshon Judkins, and TreVeyon Henderson early. Expect those guys to make their fair share of plays early, forcing McNamara to have to push the ball downfield.
That’s never a good thing for the Hawkeyes, and the Buckeyes will likely get a couple of takeaways to pull away late. Take the Buckeyes, the points, and the over in a game that starts close before Ohio State pulls away in the third quarter.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Iowa 10
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