College football schedules in 2024 vary widely depending on the program. Some teams kick off the season with high-profile non-conference battles, while others prefer to ease into the year with softer matchups against lesser opponents.
The Ohio State Buckeyes chose the latter strategy, breezing through their early games without much of a challenge. But that’s set to change on Saturday when they face a rejuvenated Iowa Hawkeyes squad.
Will the Buckeyes rise to the occasion in their first true test? Before placing your bets, take a look at our Iowa vs. Ohio State prediction.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -17 - Moneyline
Ohio State -1200, Iowa +750 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, nine mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The early betting odds released on Sunday made the Buckeyes a -21.5-point favorite. While that might have seemed derogatory to an Iowa team who have been defensively strong in recent seasons, let’s not forget that the Hawkeyes succumbed to defeats of 31, 26, and 35 points in their three biggest games last fall.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The line has dropped to -17, right below the CFN Football Playoff Meter spread, started the week. It’s the lowest spread line that the Buckeyes have faced this season so far, and they covered their previous two lowest spread lines (37 points against Western Michigan and 23.5 against Michigan State).
Iowa is 2-2 against the spread but has yet to be an underdog in 2024.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM is a bit kinder to the Hawkeyes than the Vegas line, putting Iowa just under 18-point underdogs. That translates to just an 8.7% win probability. The Hawkeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Ohio State: 8.7%
- vs. Washington: 64.1%
- at Michigan State: 64.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 88.3%
- vs. Wisconsin: 65.1%
- at UCLA: 75.5%
- at Maryland: 55.6%
- vs. Nebraska: 58.9%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 91.3% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would not have a huge effect on its expected win total for the season. The Buckeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Iowa: 91.3%
- at Oregon: 47.2%
- vs. Nebraska: 92.3%
- at Penn State: 50.6%
- vs. Purdue: 98.4%
- at Northwestern: 96.8%
- vs. Indiana: 90.8%
- vs. Michigan: 82.8%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Ohio State
Iowa can’t step into a marquee matchup without the chatter shifting to their offense—or the lack thereof. While the Hawkeyes have shown some signs of progress this year, it’s hard to tell if it’s genuine improvement in talent or playcalling or if Kaleb Johnson and a soft schedule are masking deeper issues.
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s offense may grab the headlines, but it’s the defense that’s quietly emerged as one of the nation’s elite. They’re holding opponents to under seven points per game, albeit against weaker competition, and it’s tough to see Iowa’s offense putting up much resistance on Saturday.
If Ohio State’s defense does its job, the spotlight shifts to the Buckeyes’ offense and whether they can control the tempo.
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The weapons are certainly there, especially at the skill positions. Ohio State will look to jump out early, putting the game in Cade McNamara’s hands. To set the tone, expect them to feed Jeremiah Smith, Quinshon Judkins, and TreVeyon Henderson from the start. These playmakers should make an impact quickly, forcing Iowa into uncomfortable spots.
That’s rarely a formula for success for the Hawkeyes, and the Buckeyes should capitalize with a couple of key turnovers to pull away late. Back Ohio State, lay the points, and take the over in a game that’s competitive early before the Buckeyes take control in the second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Iowa 10
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