There were incredible scenes at college football stadiums across the country in Week 12, ranging from celebrations between the hedges in Athens, stunned silence in Provo, field storming in (checks notes) Albuquerque, and bewildered Tigers in The Swamp, as the shocks and surprises continue to stack up.
What does it all mean? Our latest college football bowl projections provide a peek into the future outlook for all 134 teams.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 Colorado Buffaloes
- No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide
After dropping behind seven to the Northwestern Wildcats in Week 12, Ohio State rallied in Wrigley Field to secure a 31-7 win that keeps the pressure on the Oregon Ducks at the top of the Big Ten — and the College Football Playoff rankings. There’s a real chance the selection committee will flip these two, but they should honor the head-to-head on Tuesday. They should…
With Penn State crushing the Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana on a bye, there likely won’t be any movement there.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, the Tennessee Volunteers (at Georgia) and BYU Cougars (vs. Kansas) are set to slide after their defeats, and our College Football Playoff predictions suggest they could both completely slip out of the 12-team tournament as the only two losing teams from the top 15 of the Week 11 rankings.
To quote Colorado head coach Deion Sanders, “we comin,” as the Buffaloes are in pole position to secure a playoff spot as the fifth-highest ranked projected conference champion.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 9 Alabama
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Indiana
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), Miami (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
Unsurprisingly, Ohio State would be favored over Colorado in the first round of the College Football Playoff, with the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) giving the Buckeyes a 14-point advantage. As the highest-ranked winner from the first round, they’d match up with the projected Mountain West champion Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl.
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The Big Ten is set to dominate the postseason landscape, and both Penn State and Indiana are favored to reach the quarterfinals alongside Ohio State and conference champions Oregon. The importance of a home game in the first round is admirably demonstrated by the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers being a two-point favorite over Georgia and Ole Miss respectively.
That said, our metric gives Alabama a single-point advantage in South Bend against Notre Dame. While the Fighting Irish have been impressive in every game since losing to the Northern Illinois Fighting Irish, can they handle a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Milroe? Our College Football Playoff predictions suspect not, with the Crimson Tide facing Oregon in the quarterfinals.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Penn State
Oregon narrowly beat the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 12, casting some doubt on their status as the number-one team in the nation and their ability to make a run at the College Football National Championship Game. However, they were without star WR Tez Johnson and defensive standout Jordan Burch. At full strength, Dan Lanning’s team is as dangerous as any out there.
They could outlast Alabama, setting up a semifinal clash with Penn State, who should handle a Miami team that is one-dimensional on offense and struggling on defense in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Texas’ defense will provide Indiana with the hardest test they’ll face all season. The Sugar Bowl might not be a true home game, but it’s as good as for the Longhorns. Can they overcome the Buckeyes in the semifinal?
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
While Oregon vs. Penn State has the potential to be an impressive semifinal matchup to watch, the CFN FPM gives the Ducks a 6.5-point advantage on a neutral site. Much had been made in the preseason about a 12-team format cheapening the postseason tournament, but it’s still possible for the best team in the country to make their way unabated to the big game.
Our College Football Playoff predictions see Dan Lanning’s team take on the Longhorns in a clash of the two highest-seeded teams in the National Championship Game. Texas and Ohio State would be a much closer semifinal than the Cotton Bowl clash involving Oregon, with Steve Sarkisian’s team favored by a cigarette paper margin. Could they beat Oregon though?
Projections for the Remaining 2024 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs. Texas State
Frisco Bowl
Navy vs. Georgia Southern
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis vs. South Alabama
LA Bowl
Colorado State vs. USC
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
Louisiana vs. Miami (OH)
Gasparilla Bowl
North Texas vs. Florida
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl
UTSA vs. New Mexico
Detroit Bowl
Michigan vs. Western Michigan
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Nebraska vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl
Marshall vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Bowl
Sam Houston vs. South Florida
Birmingham Bowl
Arkansas vs. Duke
Liberty Bowl
Kansas State vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas Bowl
California vs. LSU
Fenway Bowl
Boston College vs. Army
Pinstripe Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Wisconsin
New Mexico Bowl
San Jose State vs. Jacksonville State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Clemson vs. Iowa State
Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Ohio
Military Bowl
North Carolina vs. Tulane
Alamo Bowl
BYU vs. Washington State
Independence Bowl
Texas Tech vs. UConn
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest Bowl
Louisville vs. Rutgers
Sun Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl
Baylor vs. South Carolina
Gator Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee
First Responder Bowl
East Carolina vs. West Virginia
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Syracuse vs. Illinois
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs. Eastern Michigan
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Arizona State
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