The USC Trojans face their biggest test of the season as they take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Sweet 16. After losing star guard JuJu Watkins to a torn ACL, USC must adjust quickly if they hope to keep their national championship aspirations alive.
The Trojans have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, but they’ll have to find new ways to generate offense without their top scorer. Meanwhile, Kansas State enters this matchup as one of the best shooting teams in the nation, making this an intriguing battle of styles.
USC vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All USC vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 27, 2025.
- Spread: USC -1.5
- Moneyline: USC -120, Kansas State +100
- Over/Under: 140.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 2025 | 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Spokane Arena | Spokane, Wash.
- How To Watch: ESPN
USC opened as a slight favorite despite losing Watkins, largely due to their elite defense. The Trojans’ ability to control tempo and force turnovers makes them a tough matchup for any opponent. However, Kansas State’s high-powered offense, which ranks 13th nationally at 79.5 points per game, will test USC’s defensive discipline.
The Wildcats also shoot 38.77% from three-point range, ranking second in the nation, which could be a game-changer if they get hot from deep.
USC vs. Kansas State CSN Winning Probability
- USC: 51.3%
- Kansas State: 48.7%
According to CSN’s probability model, USC has a slight edge, but it’s nearly a toss-up. This is largely in line with the Vegas odds, which also suggest a closely contested game. USC’s defense gives them an advantage, but without Watkins, the Trojans may struggle to generate enough offense to pull away.
Kansas State’s ability to stretch the floor with elite three-point shooting could tip the scales in their favor.
Prediction for USC vs. Kansas State
USC is still a formidable team without Watkins, but her absence undoubtedly shifts the game’s dynamic.
The Trojans will lean heavily on their defense and rebounding to slow down Kansas State, but without a go-to scorer, they may struggle to keep pace offensively. Kansas State’s ability to knock down shots from deep will make them a dangerous opponent, especially if USC’s offense stalls.
KEEP READING: UConn vs. Oklahoma Prediction — Huskies Cruise to Easy Victory?
While USC has the defensive tools to make this a grind-it-out game, Kansas State’s offensive firepower gives them the edge in a tight battle. Expect the Wildcats to take advantage of their 3-point shooting and offensive balance to pull off the upset.
Prediction: USC 72, Kansas State 70
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
