The first round of the NCAA Tournament features an intriguing matchup between the No. 3 seed USC Trojans and the No. 14 seed UNC Greensboro Spartans. USC enters the game following a strong season, finishing with a 17-1 conference record in the Big Ten before falling short in the conference championship game. Meanwhile, UNCG, the Southern Conference champions, makes its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998.
USC is led by freshman phenom JuJu Watkins, who has been a scoring machine all season, averaging 24.6 points per game. The Trojans boast one of the nation’s most potent offenses, ranking ninth in scoring at 81.5 points per game. UNCG, on the other hand, relies on its stout defense, which allows just 51.8 points per contest, the best mark in the country. While the Spartans will look to slow the pace and grind out possessions, USC’s high-powered attack makes them heavy favorites heading into Saturday’s game at the Galen Center.
USC vs. UNC Greensboro Betting Preview
All USC vs. UNC Greensboro odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread: USC -30.5
- Moneyline: USC -10000, UNC Greensboro +1600
- Over/Under: 128.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025 | 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Galen Center | Los Angeles, California
- How to Watch: ABC
With USC favored by a massive 30.5 points, the betting markets expect a blowout. The Trojans’ ability to put up points at a high clip, combined with their home-court advantage, makes them a difficult matchup for a UNCG squad that struggles to score. The Spartans’ elite defense is their best shot at keeping this game competitive, but their offense, ranked 186th nationally at 65 points per game, may not generate enough firepower to keep pace. The total is set at 128.5, which reflects the contrast in playing styles between USC’s up-tempo attack and UNCG’s defensive grind.
USC vs. UNC Greensboro CSN Winning Probability
- USC Winning Probability: 96.2%
- UNC Greensboro Winning Probability: 3.8%
CSN’s winning probability aligns with Vegas’ expectations, giving USC a near-lock chance to advance to the second round. The Trojans’ dominant scoring differential of +21.7 per game heavily influences this projection, as does UNCG’s inability to consistently score against top-tier defenses. While UNCG boasts a +13.2 scoring margin, the gap in overall talent and competition level makes an upset highly unlikely.
Prediction for USC vs. UNC Greensboro
USC is poised to cruise past UNC Greensboro in this first-round matchup, barring an all-time defensive performance from the Spartans. The Women of Troy, fueled by JuJu Watkins, should have no trouble breaking through UNCG’s tough defense. Watkins’ ability to create her own shot and draw fouls will put immense pressure on the Spartans’ defensive structure. Additionally, USC’s deep supporting cast and size advantage should allow them to dominate the rebounding battle and control the tempo.
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For UNCG, the key to keeping this game competitive will be limiting turnovers and slowing the pace. The Spartans can ill afford to get into a track meet with USC, as their offense simply isn’t built to match the Trojans shot-for-shot. Emani Jefferson, UNCG’s leading scorer, will need to have a career night for the Spartans to have any chance of staying within striking distance.
Prediction: USC 84, UNC Greensboro 50
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