The South Carolina Gamecocks are just one win away from another Final Four, but standing in their way is an up-and-coming Duke squad looking to make history. No. 1 South Carolina (33-3) faces No. 2 Duke (30-6) in the Elite Eight on Sunday at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
This game will test South Carolina’s championship pedigree against a Blue Devils team that has exceeded expectations under coach Kara Lawson.
Dawn Staley’s squad narrowly escaped Maryland in the Sweet 16, pulling out a 71-67 victory. Meanwhile, Duke stifled North Carolina in a 47-38 defensive battle. Both teams boast elite defenses, South Carolina ranks 32nd nationally in points allowed per game (57.3), while Duke is slightly better at 29th (57.1).
However, the Gamecocks have the edge offensively, averaging 80.8 points per game compared to Duke’s 73.8.
South Carolina vs. Duke Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 29, 2025.
- Spread: South Carolina -7.5
- Moneyline: South Carolina -345, Duke +275
- Over/Under: 129.5 points
- Game Time: Sunday, March 30, 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Legacy Arena | Birmingham, AL
- How to Watch: ABC
The Gamecocks enter as 7.5-point favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring their balanced attack and depth. South Carolina’s bench has been a major factor, and their ability to push the pace could force Duke into an uncomfortable situation.
The Blue Devils have relied on their defense to grind out wins, but slowing down a high-powered South Carolina team will be their toughest challenge yet.
South Carolina vs. Duke CSN Winning Probability
- South Carolina: 68%
- Duke: 32%
According to CSN’s model, South Carolina has a 68% chance of winning, which aligns closely with Vegas odds, who have them as significant favorites. While Duke’s defense is elite, its offensive struggles make it difficult to trust them against an experienced and battle-tested South Carolina squad.
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Prediction for South Carolina vs. Duke
South Carolina has been here before. With multiple players boasting national championship experience, Dawn Staley’s group knows how to handle high-pressure moments. Duke, meanwhile, is in unfamiliar territory, reaching the Elite Eight for the first time since 2013.
The Gamecocks’ depth, highlighted by players like MiLaysia Fulwiley and Ashlyn Watkins on the bench, has allowed them to outlast opponents in March. Expect Staley to lean on her stars, but Duke’s physicality and defensive prowess will keep this game close.
If Duke can force South Carolina into a slow-paced, half-court battle, the Blue Devils could have a chance to cover the spread. However, if the Gamecocks get out in transition and impose their will, they should advance comfortably.
Prediction: South Carolina 76, Duke 65
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