The No. 3-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7) are set to host the No. 14-seeded Oregon State Beavers (19-15) in the first round of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. While UNC is heavily favored, Oregon State enters the matchup with a nothing-to-lose mentality, looking to make history.
No 14-seed has ever beaten a No. 3 seed in the NCAA women’s tournament, but the Beavers will aim to change that narrative on Friday.
Oregon State vs. North Carolina Betting Preview
The Tar Heels have been dominant all season, finishing strong in ACC play and boasting a well-rounded roster. Oregon State, despite its underdog status, has a standout forward in Kelsey Rees, who will have a tough battle against UNC’s Alyssa Ustby and Maria Gakdeng.
Will North Carolina cruise to an expected victory, or will the Beavers keep things interesting? Let’s dive into the betting preview, CSN probability and final prediction.
All North Carolina vs. Oregon State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Point Spread
North Carolina -20.5 - Moneyline
North Carolina -10000, Oregon State +1600 - Over/Under
120.5 total points - Game Time
Friday, March 22, 1:30 p.m. ET - Location
Carmichael Arena | Chapel Hill, NC - How To Watch
ESPNU
The Tar Heels enter the matchup as massive favorites, with a -20.5 spread reflecting their dominance over lower-seeded teams. However, North Carolina has struggled against the spread (3-5) when favored by 19.5 points or more, suggesting that the Beavers could cover if they keep the game within reach.
Oregon State has covered the spread in two such games this season (2-0), which may provide value for bettors looking for an underdog play.
Oregon State vs. North Carolina Winning Probability
- North Carolina: 93.7%
- Oregon State: 6.3%
North Carolina holds an overwhelming probability of winning this first-round matchup. This aligns with Vegas odds, which give UNC an implied probability near 99%. While upsets happen in March Madness, history is firmly on the Tar Heels’ side in this one.
Prediction for Oregon State vs. North Carolina
The Beavers have an uphill battle, but they’ll look to keep things competitive through their defensive rebounding and the play of Kelsey Rees. Oregon State ranks seventh in the WCC in offensive rebounds per game (8.4), led by Rees’ 2.6 per contest.
However, stopping North Carolina’s offensive firepower will be a challenge. The Tar Heels score 70.9 points per game while outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per contest.
North Carolina’s key to victory will be controlling the paint with Maria Gakdeng and limiting Oregon State’s second-chance opportunities. The Beavers’ best hope is to slow the tempo, limit turnovers and capitalize on any open looks they get.
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For North Carolina, however, the talent disparity is too significant, and UNC’s experience should carry them to a decisive win.
Prediction: North Carolina 78, Oregon State 54
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