The No. 3 seed Oklahoma Sooners (25-7) take on the No. 14 seed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (30-3) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, March 22, 2025. The Sooners are looking to advance past the first weekend for the first time since 2013, while FGCU aims for an upset in what is their lowest-ever seed in tournament history. This matchup is a rematch from last year’s first-round contest, where Oklahoma narrowly escaped with a 73-70 victory after overcoming an early double-digit deficit.
Oklahoma’s high-powered offense, which ranks fourth in the nation at 85.2 points per game, will be tested against FGCU’s stingy defense, which allows just 53.2 points per contest (eighth in the country). The Eagles, known for their disciplined play and elite defensive efficiency, will need to find a way to slow down Oklahoma’s three-point-heavy attack. With both teams boasting impressive scoring differentials—OU at +518 and FGCU at +626—this game is set to be a compelling battle between firepower and defense.
Oklahoma vs. FGCU Betting Preview
All Oklahoma vs. FGCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread: Oklahoma -15.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -1786, FGCU +1000
- Over/Under: 145.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025, at 2:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Lloyd Noble Center | Norman, Oklahoma
- How To Watch: ESPNU
Oklahoma enters this game as a heavy 15.5-point favorite, reflecting its offensive firepower and home-court advantage. The Sooners have been dominant in Big 12 play and boast an impressive +16.2-point scoring margin per game. FGCU, however, thrives as an underdog, with a history of making noise in March Madness despite its 4-10 all-time tournament record. The Eagles defense will be their best weapon in keeping this game within reach, but they will need a strong offensive performance to stay competitive.
Oklahoma vs. FGCU CSN Winning Probability
- CSN Winning Probability: Oklahoma 86.7%, FGCU 13.3%
The Sooners’ 86.7% chance of winning, per CSN’s probability model, aligns closely with the betting odds. Vegas projects Oklahoma as the clear favorite, and the statistical models back that up. However, FGCU’s history of upsets and defensive efficiency could make this a trickier game than the odds suggest, especially if the Eagles limit Oklahoma’s three-point shooting.
Prediction for Oklahoma vs. FGCU
This game is a classic offense-versus-defense matchup, with Oklahoma’s high-scoring attack facing off against FGCU’s lockdown defense. The Eagles will need Emani Jefferson, their leading scorer at 14.4 points per game, to deliver a standout performance. She put up 22 points against the Sooners in last year’s contest, proving she can handle this stage. However, FGCU’s roster turnover from last season means they may lack the experience to handle Oklahoma’s firepower.
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Oklahoma’s depth and three-point shooting (No. 14 nationally in attempts per game) give them the edge in this matchup. The Sooners are also a stronger defensive team than last year, making it more difficult for FGCU to exploit weaknesses as they did in 2024. While the Eagles could keep things interesting early on, Oklahoma’s offensive firepower and home-court advantage should prove too much in the end.
Prediction: Oklahoma 80, FGCU 64
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