For the fourth consecutive season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have punched their ticket to the Sweet 16. However, history hasn’t been kind to them at this stage, as they’ve failed to advance past this round in each of the past three years. Their opponent, No. 2 seed TCU, brings experience and depth, relying heavily on a roster built through the transfer portal.
The Big 12 champion Horned Frogs have already taken down Louisville in this year’s NCAA Tournament and are looking to reach the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. With two high-scoring offenses and battle-tested squads, Saturday’s matchup is expected to be one of the most exciting games of the tournament.
Notre Dame vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 27, 2025.
- Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -237, TCU +192
- Over/Under: 144.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 2025 | 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC | Birmingham, Ala.
- How to Watch: ABC
Notre Dame enters as a 5.5-point favorite, largely due to its potent offensive attack, which ranks third in the nation in field goal percentage and fourth in scoring offense. The Irish have a +773 scoring differential this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, TCU has been one of the more balanced teams in college basketball, scoring 77.7 points per game (22nd in the nation) while allowing just 57.5 (35th). Their ability to play at a controlled pace and lock down defensively could pose problems for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame vs. TCU CSN Winning Probability
- Notre Dame: 61%
- TCU: 39%
According to CSN’s probability model, Notre Dame has a 61% chance of securing the victory, slightly higher than the odds implied by Vegas.
The Irish’s elite efficiency on offense and ability to put up points in bunches give them a slight edge over a TCU squad that thrives on controlling tempo and defensive intensity. If Notre Dame can dictate the pace and avoid early shooting struggles, their offensive firepower could overwhelm the Horned Frogs.
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. TCU
Both teams bring different strengths to the table in this Sweet 16 showdown. Notre Dame relies on speed, ball movement, and high-percentage shooting, while TCU banks on its physicality, experience, and defensive prowess.
The key matchup to watch will be Notre Dame’s high-powered offense against TCU’s disciplined defense. If the Irish can get into a rhythm early, they should be able to build a lead that the Horned Frogs may struggle to erase.
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On the other hand, TCU’s ability to slow down the pace and force Notre Dame into uncomfortable situations could be the deciding factor. The Horned Frogs’ roster, built primarily through the transfer portal, is full of veteran players who understand the stakes and won’t be intimidated by the moment.
Prediction: Notre Dame 75, TCU 70
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