The NCAA Women’s Tournament Sweet 16 stage brings an epic in-state showdown as No. 4 seed North Carolina takes on No. 1 seed Duke in Birmingham. This will be the third meeting between the Tar Heels and Blue Devils this season, with each team winning once in the regular season.
However, this game has higher stakes than ever before, it’s their first-ever NCAA Tournament matchup, and a spot in the Elite Eight is on the line.
North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Preview
Duke, the No. 1 seed, survived a scare against Oregon in the Round of 32 but was bailed out by Ashlon Jackson’s 20-point second-half performance. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s defense has been the backbone of its tournament run, forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations and limiting scoring opportunities.
The Blue Devils have struggled with turnovers, coughing up the ball 28 times in their first two tournament games. That’s an area the Tar Heels will look to exploit in this heated rivalry clash.
All North Carolina vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, March 26, 2025.
- Spread: Duke -5.5
- Moneyline: Duke -248, North Carolina +200
- Over/Under: 124.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025 | 2:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC | Birmingham, Alabama
- How to Watch: ESPN
Duke enters as a 5.5-point favorite, largely due to its balanced scoring attack and defensive prowess.
The Blue Devils rank 30th in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 57.1 points per game, while their offense scores 73.8 per contest. On the other hand, North Carolina scores 70.5 points per game while allowing 57.6, ranking 37th in scoring defense.
The total is set at 124.5, a reflection of both teams’ defensive strengths. The first two matchups this season were tightly contested, with Duke winning the first meeting 67-60 and North Carolina taking the rematch 65-61. If this game follows that trend, the under could be a strong play.
North Carolina vs. Duke CSN Winning Probability
- Duke: 68.2%
- North Carolina: 31.8%
According to CSN’s win probability model, Duke is favored with a 68.2% chance to win, aligning closely with the implied probability of the moneyline. Vegas odds suggest Duke is the superior team, but North Carolina’s defensive tenacity and ability to force turnovers could make this game more competitive than expected.
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Prediction for North Carolina vs. Duke
This game will likely come down to Duke’s ability to take care of the ball. If the Blue Devils continue their turnover woes, North Carolina has a legitimate chance to pull off the upset. The Tar Heels’ ability to create defensive pressure and capitalize on Duke’s mistakes will be crucial in keeping the game close.
However, Duke’s depth and star power give them the edge. Ashlon Jackson’s scoring ability and the Blue Devils’ ability to control the tempo should help them avoid another upset scare. If Duke limits turnovers and executes offensively, they should secure their spot in the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Duke 70, North Carolina 66
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