The NC State Wolfpack are back in the Sweet 16, aiming for their second straight Final Four appearance after ending a 25-year drought last season. The Wolfpack (28-6) have become a staple in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, making their sixth Sweet 16 appearance in the last seven years.
However, they now face their most formidable challenge yet: the up-and-rising LSU Tigers (30-4).
NC State vs. LSU Betting Preview
All NC State vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, March 26, 2025.
- Spread: LSU -3.5
- Moneyline: LSU -167, NC State +140
- Over/Under: 153.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena | Spokane, Wash.
- How to Watch: ESPN
LSU boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 85 points per game. The Tigers thrive in transition and use their length and athleticism to wear down opponents. However, NC State has the defensive discipline and frontcourt depth to make this a highly competitive matchup.
Freshmen Tilda Trygger and Lorena Awou have significantly improved throughout the season, and their development in the post could be a key factor in neutralizing LSU’s interior presence.
LSU enters as a slight favorite, with oddsmakers giving the Tigers a 3.5-point edge. Their offensive explosiveness and championship experience likely contribute to this number.
Meanwhile, NC State has been a consistent tournament contender and is more than capable of keeping this game close. The total is set at 153.5 points, reflecting the expectation of an up-tempo battle with plenty of scoring opportunities.
One major factor to consider is NC State’s ability to slow the pace of play. If the Wolfpack can limit LSU’s transition opportunities and force the Tigers into a half-court game, they have a strong chance of covering the spread and potentially winning outright.
NC State vs. LSU CSN Winning Probability
According to the latest CSN metrics, LSU has a 61% chance of winning this game, while NC State holds a 39% probability of pulling off the upset. This projection aligns closely with Vegas odds, where LSU’s moneyline suggests an implied probability of approximately 63%.
While LSU’s statistical advantage is clear, NC State’s recent tournament pedigree and defensive toughness make this a much closer matchup than the numbers may suggest. The Wolfpack will need to play a near-perfect game to advance, but their ability to grind out wins cannot be overlooked.
Prediction for NC State vs. LSU
This matchup will come down to tempo control and execution in the paint. LSU thrives when they can push the pace, but NC State has the personnel to dictate the game’s rhythm. If the Wolfpack can slow things down, work through their post players, and limit turnovers, they’ll have a chance to pull off the upset.
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However, LSU’s offensive firepower is undeniable. The Tigers’ ability to get out in transition and create mismatches will put pressure on NC State’s defense throughout the game. Expect LSU to attack early and often, forcing the Wolfpack to play catch-up.
Prediction: LSU 78, NC State 74
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