The No. 8 seed California Golden Bears (25-8) take on the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, March 22. This matchup presents a compelling contrast in styles, with Cal’s balanced offense facing off against Mississippi State’s rebounding dominance.
The Golden Bears enter the game as slight favorites, but the Bulldogs’ physicality could create a challenge.
Mississippi State vs. Cal Betting Preview
All Cal vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread
Cal -1.5 - Moneyline
Cal -132, Mississippi State +110 - Over/Under
144.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, March 22, 2025, at 5:30 p.m. ET - Location
Galen Center | Los Angeles, California - How To Watch
ESPN2
Cal has been strong against the spread this season, covering in 17 of 27 games.
As a 1.5-point favorite or greater, the Golden Bears are 11-6. They’ve also hit the over in 13 of their 27 matchups.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has an 8-10 record against the spread this year and is 4-8 as a 1.5-point underdog or more. The Bulldogs have seen 10 of their 18 games hit the over, making the 144.5-point total an interesting betting line.
Mississippi State vs. Cal Winning Probability
Cal has a 57% chance of winning this matchup, while Mississippi State holds a 43% probability. This aligns closely with the Vegas line, where Cal is a slight favorite. However, given the Bulldogs’ ability to control the boards and slow down the pace, their chances might be slightly undervalued.
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Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Cal
This game will likely come down to tempo and rebounding. Cal averages 73.7 points per game (53rd in the nation) and has outscored opponents by an average of 9.1 points per contest.
The Golden Bears have been efficient on both ends of the floor and will look to dictate the pace.
However, Mississippi State is dominant on the glass, ranking fourth in the SEC with 37.7 rebounds per game. If Madina Okot (9.6 RPG) can impose her presence in the paint, the Bulldogs will have a path to an upset.
For Cal, the key will be ball movement and perimeter shooting. The Golden Bears rely on Kayla Williams (3.9 APG) to facilitate their offense, and if she can create open looks, Cal should have the edge. Mississippi State’s defense will aim to limit those opportunities, but their struggles against high-scoring teams this season could be a concern.
Ultimately, expect a close contest, but Cal’s offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers should make the difference.
Prediction: Cal 73, Mississippi State 70
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