The No. 10 LSU Tigers take on the No. 14 San Diego State Aztecs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, with LSU looking to build on their strong tournament history. The Tigers are a perennial powerhouse under Coach Kim Mulkey and have dominated non-conference play, going undefeated outside the SEC this season.
San Diego State, making its first tournament appearance since 2012, faces a daunting challenge against the defending national champions.
With LSU boasting one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country, led by Aneesah Morrow and Flau’Jae Johnson, the Tigers are heavily favored. San Diego State’s depth, however, has been a key strength, ranking 11th nationally in bench scoring.
The Aztecs will need a near-perfect performance to pull off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history.
LSU vs. San Diego State Betting Preview
All LSU vs. San Diego State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread: LSU -26.5 (-110) | San Diego State +26.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: LSU -50000 | San Diego State +3500
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025 | 10:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center | Baton Rouge, LA
- How to Watch: ESPN
LSU enters this matchup as a massive 26.5-point favorite, a reflection of their dominance this season. With a 17-1 record at home, the Tigers have been nearly unbeatable in Baton Rouge. Meanwhile, San Diego State’s scoring struggles could be a concern, as the Aztecs will have to contend with LSU’s size and athleticism on both ends of the floor.
LSU vs. San Diego State CSN Winning Probability
- CSN Winning Probability: LSU 97.5%, San Diego State 2.5%
According to CSN’s projections, LSU has an overwhelming 97.5% chance of winning this matchup. This aligns with the betting lines, as LSU’s dominance in the paint and offensive rebounding (third in the country) make them a nightmare matchup for San Diego State.
The Aztecs will need to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc and force turnovers to have any chance of making this a competitive game.
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Prediction for LSU vs. San Diego State
LSU has proven time and time again that they thrive in the NCAA Tournament, and this year is no different. With Morrow dominating the glass and Johnson leading the offensive attack, the Tigers should control this game from start to finish.
San Diego State’s depth and bench scoring might keep things interesting early, but LSU’s overwhelming talent will likely wear the Aztecs down as the game progresses.
The Tigers should have no problem advancing to the second round, where they will face either Florida State or George Mason. Expect LSU’s stars to shine in front of a raucous home crowd as they take another step toward defending their national title.
Prediction: LSU 88, San Diego State 63
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