The NCAA Tournament always delivers its fair share of thrilling upsets, and the matchup between No. 22 Florida State and George Mason has all the makings of another bracket-busting classic.
Florida State enters the first round as the No. 6 seed, boasting one of the nation’s most potent offenses. Meanwhile, George Mason, fresh off its first-ever conference championship, aims to continue its historic run by knocking off a ranked opponent for the first time in over two decades.
With the Seminoles’ Ta’Niya Latson leading the country in scoring and George Mason’s stingy defense ranking among the nation’s best, this showdown in Baton Rouge has all the ingredients for a March Madness thriller.
Florida State vs. George Mason Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. George Mason odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread: Florida State -4.5
- Moneyline: Florida State -207, George Mason +170
- Over/Under: 156.5
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025, at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center | Baton Rouge, Louisiana
- How to Watch: ESPN2
Florida State has been dominant offensively, ranking second in the nation with 87.2 points per game. However, their defense leaves much to be desired, surrendering 71.2 points per contest (317th in the country). George Mason, on the other hand, boasts an elite defense, allowing just 56.7 points per game (28th in the nation).
The Patriots also shoot a strong 36.5% from beyond the arc, ranking second in the A-10, which could be a key factor against a Seminoles team that struggles on the defensive end.
Florida State vs. George Mason CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s analytics model, Florida State has a 67% chance of advancing past George Mason, while the Patriots hold a 33% chance of pulling off the upset.
The Seminoles’ high-powered offense gives them the edge in the model, but George Mason’s stout defense and ability to control the tempo make this a closer contest than some might expect. The spread of -4.5 in favor of FSU aligns closely with the projections, suggesting a competitive game that could come down to the final minutes.
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Prediction for Florida State vs. George Mason
While Florida State’s scoring prowess is undeniable, George Mason’s defensive intensity could make things difficult for the Seminoles. Latson will need another big game to keep FSU on track, but the Patriots have the tools to disrupt her and force other players to step up.
Additionally, the historical trend of 11-seeds upsetting 6-seeds looms large, adding to the intrigue.
Florida State’s offensive firepower should be enough to survive a potential upset scare, but expect George Mason to keep it close throughout.
Prediction: Florida State 80, George Mason 70
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