As March Madness gets underway, No. 5 seed Alabama faces off against No. 12 seed Green Bay in the opening round of the NCAA Women’s Tournament. With Alabama boasting a 13-1 record in non-conference play, the Crimson Tide look to make a deep tournament run behind the leadership of Aaliyah Nye.
Green Bay, on the other hand, enters the tournament as the Horizon League regular-season and tournament champion, riding high on a 22-game winning streak. With the stakes high, let’s break down the matchup, the betting odds, and the key players to watch.
Alabama vs. Green Bay Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Green Bay odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread: Alabama -13.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -1200, Green Bay +680
- Over/Under: 130.5
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Coleman Coliseum | Tuscaloosa, AL
- How To Watch: ESPN2
Alabama enters this matchup as a heavy favorite, with a 13.5-point spread reflecting its dominance throughout the season. The Crimson Tide have been impressive in non-conference play, especially with its 46.3% field-goal shooting, which is significantly better than Green Bay’s defensive average of 38.7%.
Alabama’s high-powered offense is led by the sharp shooting of Aaliyah Nye, who averages 15.1 points per game and has been lethal from beyond the arc, making 3.4 three-pointers per contest at a 45.5% clip.
Green Bay, however, isn’t a team to overlook. With a remarkable 29-5 overall record, including a 22-1 mark in Horizon League play, the Phoenix have been dominant throughout the year. They come into the tournament with the nation’s 17th-best defense, allowing just 55.8 points per game, and will rely on this defense to keep the game competitive.
The Phoenix’s offense, led by senior standout Mya Denney, averages 68.4 points per game and will need to find a way to break down Alabama’s defense if they hope to pull off the upset.
Alabama vs. Green Bay CSN Winning Probability
According to the latest data, Alabama has a strong CSN winning probability of 88%. This probability reflects their significant edge in overall performance, with a well-balanced team that has been dominant throughout the season.
The Crimson Tide’s strong offensive and defensive metrics give them an upper hand, though Green Bay’s stout defense and ability to control the game tempo could make things interesting.
In comparison, the betting odds and CSN probability align, with Alabama favored by a large margin. However, given Green Bay’s ability to frustrate high-scoring teams with its defense, it still has a chance to keep the game closer than expected.
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Prediction for Alabama vs. Green Bay
With Alabama’s firepower on both ends of the court and Green Bay’s stellar defense, this game could be closer than the spread suggests. While Green Bay’s defense is one of the best in the nation, they haven’t faced an offense quite as potent as Alabama’s.
Aaliyah Nye’s shooting could be the difference-maker in this game, especially with Green Bay’s defensive focus on containing her outside shooting.
Prediction: Alabama 72, Green Bay 59
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