The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have risen through the ranks in the reshaped Big Ten, evolving from a gritty underdog into a real bowl contender. On the other hand, the Wisconsin Badgers have remained steady, holding a 3-2 record without much in the way of surprises—good or bad—so far this season.
Could Saturday’s game be the turning point? Our Wisconsin vs. Rutgers prediction has an advantage to look into.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Betting Preview
All California vs. Rutgers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Rutgers -3 - Spread
Rutgers -1.5 - Moneyline
Rutgers -122, Wisconsin +102 - Over/Under
44 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
Big Ten Network
To open, CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas were completely aligned on this one, both favoring the Scarlet Knights by three points. But since then, the total has dropped and kept steady at Rutgers -1.5. Vegas expects an old-school Big Ten rock fight, implying a final score close to 21-20, Rutgers.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. The spread ranges from Rutgers -1.5 to -3.5 and the totals hovering around 40-44 everywhere you look.
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Wisconsin has a 41.1% chance to win on Saturday. The Badgers don’t have many games left as a favorite, so they’ll need to steal one or two to make a bowl.
- at Rutgers: 41.1%
- at Northwestern:74.6%
- vs. Penn State: 17.0%
- at Iowa: 37.4%
- vs. Oregon: 12.6%
- at Nebraska: 44.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 55.6%
Rutgers’ Winning Probability
FPM has the Scarlet Knights as three-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 58.9%. They have several toss-up games remaining, and if they can flip a few in their direction, we could be talking about a 9-3 Rutgers team.
- vs. Wisconsin: 58.9%
- vs. UCLA: 76.6%
- at USC: 36.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 53.4%
- at Maryland: 55.6%
- vs. Illinois: 50.0%
- at Michigan State: 64.1%
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
We know what Wisconsin looks like when it dominates an opponent, and we’ve seen how it struggles against superior teams.
What we haven’t seen yet is how the Badgers handle a team on equal footing.
So far, they’re 0-2 as double-digit underdogs and 3-0 as double-digit favorites. But last Saturday’s win over a shaky Purdue team was the first time they actually covered the spread.
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Then there’s Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights aren’t flashy—they stick to a few core concepts in the first half, figure out what’s working, and hammer it in the second half until defenses catch on.
It’s not a complex strategy, and I’m skeptical about its long-term effectiveness, but it works for this roster and schedule.
Rutgers hit a wall against Nebraska’s defense last week, snapping their unbeaten streak, but Wisconsin’s defense isn’t as stiff, and their offense lacks the dynamic passing threat Nebraska brought.
Rutgers isn’t built to overpower anyone—they’re built to wear teams down. If the internal issues in Madison are as bad as they seem, we’ll find out soon. It won’t be pretty, but I’m leaning towards Rutgers here. Expect Kyle Monangai, who’s been averaging 23 carries a game, to shoulder even more of the load this week.
This is what Big Ten football is all about.
Prediction: Rutgers 23, Wisconsin 14
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