In Week 14, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Jacksonville State Gamecocks delivered an instant classic, setting the stage for this highly anticipated Friday night showdown. Just days later, they’re back at it, squaring off at AmFirst Stadium with the CUSA title on the line.
Who has the edge? Our Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and picks the winner of the CUSA Championship Game.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
All Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -1 - Spread
Jacksonville State -4 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -180, Western Kentucky +150 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
35 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS Sports Network
Western Kentucky’s win last Saturday stretched their advantage in the head-to-head matchup with Jacksonville State. The Hilltoppers carry a 5-2 lead into the CUSA Championship Game, but despite their historical success and beating the Gamecocks last weekend, they’re an underdog with a line that is swinging ever further away from the road team as the game nears.
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Starting at a one-point spread, the line shifted to -4 on the Gamecocks before settling at -5 just one day before the game. As we discuss later in this Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction, this could be a pointer to health at the game’s most important position. The Hilltoppers are 4-2 ATS as an underdog, but have covered just once in the last five games.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Hilltoppers, giving them a winning probability of 49.6%. A win on Friday would give the Hilltoppers a Conference USA title win after things looked bleak just a few weeks ago.
- at Jacksonville State: 49.6%
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Gamecocks are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 50.4%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and a win would give the Gamecocks their first conference championship and a second-straight nine-win season after moving up to the FBS level just last year.
- vs. Western Kentucky: 50.4%
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
It’s never easy to beat a team twice in the same season—let alone in back-to-back weeks—but that’s the challenge Tyson Helton and the Hilltoppers face.
This matchup in Jacksonville brings a clash of styles: Western Kentucky’s spread passing attack versus Jacksonville State’s up-tempo, run-heavy spread offense.
The Gamecocks stumbled out of the gate in non-conference play but found their rhythm during the CUSA slate, remaining unbeaten until last week’s showdown.
Let’s be clear: it’s not that Jacksonville State didn’t play hard in their first meeting. But the stakes were vastly different. The Gamecocks had already locked in their spot in the championship game, while the Hilltoppers were fighting to keep their season alive on home turf.
Now, the tables turn. Jacksonville State is back home, but there’s a major question looming.
Quarterback Tyler Huff left last week’s game with an apparent leg injury in the third quarter. He spent the rest of the game on the sidelines, helmet in hand, after a visit to the medical tent.
Logan Smothers stepped in and finished the game. Was Huff too injured to return, or did Rich Rodriguez hold him out as a precaution, knowing the Gamecocks’ title-game spot was secure?
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If Huff is healthy, I lean toward Jacksonville State in the rematch.
Either way, this game is fascinating for the adjustments the coaching staffs will make in the second meeting.
How does Rodriguez scheme to free up Tre Stewart after Western Kentucky became only the fourth team all season to hold him under five yards per carry? And how does Helton generate enough of a running game to create some balance for the Hilltoppers?
If Huff is cleared to play, I expect him to perform better as a passer. While he’s had accuracy issues this year, last week’s struggles in the first two-and-a-half quarters were an outlier.
If he’s healthy, I think the coaching staff will adjust with more manageable throws to players like Cam Vaughn and Sean Brown—both of whom were non-factors in the loss.
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Both offenses underperformed last week in ways few expected. The Vegas total for this game suggests a much higher-scoring affair, and if Huff is good to go, I trust Jacksonville State’s offense to rebound faster than Western Kentucky’s.
That’s more instinct than analytics, but the Gamecocks’ offensive issues feel more fixable than the Hilltoppers’. That’s where I’m landing with this Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
That said, the line movement is concerning—especially with questions surrounding Huff’s availability. I’m sticking with Jacksonville State in a shootout, but if Huff can’t go, my confidence in that pick takes a significant hit.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 27
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