Two teams that began the season with hopes of contending in the Big 12 now face off in the desert, aiming to regain bowl eligibility and respectability. The West Virginia Mountaineers head to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats in a Saturday evening showdown.
Our West Virginia vs. Arizona prediction covers all the essentials, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
West Virginia vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -2 - Spread
Arizona -4.5 - Moneyline
Arizona -160, West Virginia +192 - Over/Under
52 points - Game time
6 p.m. ET - Location
Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
As the phrase goes, “There’s a first time for everything,” and Neal Brown’s Mountaineers and Brent Brennan’s Wildcats collide for the first time in college football history. College football conference realignment has thrown these two teams together in the Big 12, and Arizona enters the game as a marginal favorite, according to the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Wildcats haven’t actually fared too well when favored entering a game, losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Colorado Buffaloes after their season-opening win over the New Mexico Lobos. West Virginia has one win as an underdog but has lost its last two games. Betting this one is for the true degenerates. Don’t be surprised if there’s a push on the spread.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, West Virginia has a 47.2% chance of beating Arizona on Saturday evening. Being the road team gives the Mountaineers a little disadvantage in what is otherwise a potential pick ’em game. Our metric projected the four losses this season but also had West Virginia as a one-point underdog against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
- at Arizona: 47.2%
- at Cincinnati: 52.8%
- vs. Baylor: 65.7%
- vs. UCF: 74.6%
- at Texas Tech: 47.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, West Virginia would end the 2024 season with a 6-6 record, securing bowl eligibility for a second successive season. However, after a nine-win season in 2023 led to high preseason expectations, that would constitute a disappointing campaign for the Mountaineers.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives Arizona a 52.8% chance of beating the Mountaineers on Saturday evening. It’s worth noting that our metric has had higher expectations than the Wildcats have delivered this season, projecting wins against the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Raiders that they failed to achieve.
- vs. West Virginia: 52.8%
- at UCF: 61.9%
- vs. Houston: 83%
- at TCU: 49.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 55.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Wildcats would end the 2024 season with a 7-5 record. After a 10-win season a year ago, it would be a disappointing downturn in fortunes, especially after retaining some key talent in the wake of coaching changes and a move across conferences.
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Arizona
If you’d told me before the season that these two teams would meet in Week 9 with a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game on the line, I would have believed you without hesitation. Yet here we are—West Virginia and Arizona both facing down the prospect of a disappointing season, with only respectability and bowl eligibility left to fight for as the season winds toward a late November finish.
Can Arizona notch another Big 12 win in their underwhelming conference campaign, or will West Virginia push above .500 with a victory in the desert? Who holds the upper hand, and where will the critical matchups be fought?
High hopes surrounded the Mountaineers’ offense this fall, with Garrett Greene receiving buzz as a breakout quarterback candidate and a backfield duo featuring the powerful CJ Donaldson and promising young talent Jaheim White.
After a streak of scoring 30+ points per game, the offense has hit a wall, resulting in tough losses over the past two weeks.
Now, West Virginia sits 70th in the nation with an average of 28.4 points per game—still a bright spot compared to Arizona’s struggles. Averaging just 23 points per game, Arizona’s offense ranks 100th nationally and has lacked direction outside of standout receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
The run game has been nearly nonexistent, while Noah Fifita has the dubious honor of leading the Big 12 in interceptions.
Defensively, both teams have had their struggles, but Arizona might have a slight edge here. Once the pride of West Virginia’s defense, the Mountaineers’ pass defense has faltered, allowing the second-most passing yards per game, recording the fewest interceptions, and tying Texas Tech for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the Big 12.
If there’s a chance for the Fifita-McMillan connection to shine, it’s on Saturday evening. While Arizona’s defense has also dealt with injury setbacks this season, if key players like Jacob Manu and Tacario Davis are close to full strength, the Wildcats could have a strong enough run defense to stifle West Virginia’s ground game and come away with a win.
Prediction: West Virginia 21, Arizona 24
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