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    SMU vs. Duke Prediction: Kevin Jennings Can Run Mustangs to Victory Over Blue Devils

    Saturday night brings an unexpectedly intriguing ACC clash, and our SMU vs. Duke prediction dives into what promises to be an exciting showdown.

    Though it may not be the most talked-about game nationally, Saturday night’s clash between the SMU Mustangs and the Duke Blue Devils brings plenty of excitement. With both teams fighting for critical positioning, this ACC showdown is shaping up to be one to watch closely.

    Our SMU vs. Duke preview dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    SMU vs. Duke Betting Preview

    All SMU vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      SMU -4
    • Spread
      SMU -10.5
    • Moneyline
      SMU -440, Duke +340
    • Over/Under
      49 points
    • Game time
      8 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Wallace Wade Stadium | Durham, NC
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      53 degrees, mostly cloudy, 7 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      ACC Network

    You won’t find much historical relevance here, as college football conference realignment throws together two teams that haven’t met since 1956. The Blue Devils won both previous encounters, including the last time they collided in Durham, with both games being low-scoring affairs. That would play into Duke’s favor on Saturday night, but this isn’t aint the SMU vs. Duke matchup your great-grandpa might remember from a bygone time.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    SMU is a favorite everywhere you look, and although CFN FPM has this being a closer affair than the bookmakers, they should remain undefeated in ACC play on Saturday night. Unless the spread line comes down a couple of points, I fancy Duke to cover despite SMU being 5-1 ATS this year.

    SMU’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, SMU has a 61.9% chance of getting the job done on Saturday night. Our metric has nearly always been in lockstep with the Mustangs this year, predicting their loss to the BYU Cougars. That said, we projected a loss to the Louisville Cardinals, so there is some margin for error.

    • at Duke: 61.9%
    • vs. Pittsburgh: 60.6%
    • vs. Boston College: 74.9%
    • at Virginia: 65.7%
    • vs. California: 73%

    If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Mustangs would march through the ACC, going undefeated in conference play with just one out-of-conference loss on their resume. With the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes avoiding each other in the regular season, there’s a legitimate chance of a three-way tie.

    Duke’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, the CFN FPM gives the Blue Devils a 38.1% chance of halting the Mustangs and coming away with a victory on Saturday evening. Our metric has favored Duke in every game except the loss to Georgia Tech, making them a 5.5-point underdog in their only loss of the season to date.

    • vs. SMU: 38.1%
    • at Miami (FL): 14.1%
    • at NC State: 50.8%
    • vs. Virginia Tech: 49.6%
    • vs. Wake Forest: 63.1%

    If those win probabilities were to hold true, Duke would end the year with an 8-4 overall record and a 4-4 conference record. That’s one win better in the regular season than the final year under Mike Elko, which would perhaps defy some outside expectations of the program this year. It’s worth noting that games against NC State and Virginia Tech could go either way.

    Prediction for SMU vs. Duke

    After a rocky start to the season, Rhett Lashlee’s SMU squad has made an impressive adjustment to life in the ACC. Heading into Saturday night’s matchup, they’re one of only four undefeated teams in conference play. Meanwhile, Duke has surprised many with a 6-1 start under new leadership, defying preseason expectations for the 2024 season.

    Can the Mustangs keep their spot at the top of the ACC? Will Manny Diaz lead an upset to keep the Blue Devils in the race with the conference’s elite? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?

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    Starting with the home team, Duke’s strength lies in its solid defense. Manny Diaz, now leading in Durham after his tenure as Penn State’s defensive coordinator, has brought his knack for building elite defensive units. Though his head coaching time in Miami had its challenges, his defensive strategies have consistently shined.

    This season, that formula has worked for the Blue Devils. Allowing just 17.3 points per game, Duke leads the ACC in scoring defense, surrendering only six passing touchdowns while holding opponents to a conference-low 4.9 yards per attempt. Only Miami has allowed fewer total yards than Duke’s 306.1 yards per game.

    Jaylen Stinson, Chandler Rivers, and Joshua Pickett have been stars, locking down the Duke secondary and creating a no-fly zone. Despite never allowing more than 24 points in any game, they’ve been in tight contests with every Power Four opponent, limited by an offense that averages just 17.3 points per game.

    That offensive struggle may prove costly against SMU’s dynamic attack. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets exploited Duke’s defense on the ground in their only loss this season. With Brashard Smith’s versatility out of the backfield and Kevin Jennings’ dual-threat ability, the Mustangs look primed to roll out of Durham with another win.

    Prediction: SMU 30, Duke 21

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