Following their first loss of the season, the Penn State Nittany Lions return to Beaver Stadium, eager to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten Championship Game and a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who comes out on top? Our Washington vs. Penn State prediction dives into every detail, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football campaign.
Washington vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -14.5 - Spread
Penn State -13.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -575, Washington +425 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, PA - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, increasing clouds and a chilly evening for football, 4 mph winds - How to Watch
Peacock
Unsurprisingly, two programs at opposite ends of the country don’t have a rich and long history of playing against each other. They only have three previous encounters after first clashing in 1921, two of which came in postseason play. That includes the last matchup in 2017. Penn State has won all three games and enters Saturday night’s game favored to continue that streak.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Nittany Lions are undefeated this season when entering a game as the favorite, while the Huskies’ win against the USC Trojans last time out was their time overcoming the odds to win a game in 2024. They’re 1-2 as an underdog this year. Neither team has consistently covered the spread this season (7-17 ATS), but Penn State has an average margin of victory of 15+.
Washington’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Washington has only a 13.2% chance of beating Penn State on Saturday night. In good news for Huskies’ fans, our metric hasn’t always had a good read on the program, projecting a loss when they beat the Michigan Wolverines and inaccurately forecasting wins in several losses.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Washington in the 2024 college football season:
- at Penn State: 13.2%
- at Oregon: 6.4%
- vs. UCLA: 74.2%
If those win probabilities hold true, the Huskies would end the year with a 6-6 record, including a 4-5 Big Ten campaign. It was always going to be difficult to repeat the success of 2023 with a whole new coaching staff and a rejigged roster. Yet, that doesn’t prevent this campaign from being viewed as a disappointment.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Penn State an 86.8% chance of beating Washington on Saturday night. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Nittany Lions, projecting their seven wins and only defeat of the year to the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Penn State in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Washington: 86.8%
- at Purdue: 94.3%
- at Minnesota: 73%
- vs. Maryland: 94.4%
If those win probabilities hold true, the Nittany Lions will end the year with an 11-1 record, including an 8-1 Big Ten campaign. That could be enough for a Big Ten Championship Game appearance and College Football Playoff berth. Yet, in this wildest of seasons, it might not be enough to win the conference title.
Prediction for Washington vs. Penn State
The loss to Ohio State was a gut punch for Penn State fans, crushing their title and playoff hopes while turning up the heat on head coach James Franklin after yet another big-game letdown. The Nittany Lions will look to make a statement and catch the attention of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, but can they bounce back with the win they so desperately need?
Blocking their path is a Washington team battling a national title game hangover and the challenges of adapting to a new conference. While they’re well out of the Big Ten title and playoff picture, the Huskies need just one win from their final three games to secure bowl eligibility for the third straight year.
Who has the upper hand, and where will this matchup be won or lost?
Washington’s defense has been a bright spot this season under Jedd Fisch, showing significant improvement after giving up over 24 points per game the past two years. Now ranked 21st nationally in scoring defense, the Huskies allow just 19 points per game.
Linebacker Carson Bruener has been a force, while cornerbacks Ephesians Prycock and Thaddeus Dixon form a dynamic duo in the secondary.
The offense, however, has taken a noticeable step back. After losing their starting quarterback and a trio of elite pass-catchers to the NFL, Washington’s scoring output is down nearly 13 points per game compared to 2023.
Will Rogers hasn’t been able to replicate his SEC success, and no receiver is on pace to hit 1,000 yards—quite the drop-off for a program that boasted two 1,000-yard receivers last season.
Jonah Coleman has been a standout performer, rushing for 889 yards and seven touchdowns at an impressive 6.3 yards per carry. But he may struggle to carry the offense against a Penn State defense that has surrendered just four rushing touchdowns all season and holds opponents to 3.38 yards per carry.
Linebacker Abdul Carter has been relentless, spearheading a unit that limits teams to just 15 points per game.
While Washington’s defense has improved, their run defense remains vulnerable, giving up 10 rushing touchdowns, 150.78 yards per game, and 4.27 yards per carry.
That could spell trouble against Penn State’s dynamic running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who are poised to carry the offense and relieve some pressure on quarterback Drew Allar and an underwhelming wide receiver group.
Prediction: Penn State 30, Washington 14
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