On Senior Day, the top-ranked Oregon Ducks will wrap up their regular season against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium this Saturday. Dan Lanning’s squad enters the matchup riding a 14-game home win streak that dates back to November 2022.
The Ducks, sitting at a flawless 11-0, narrowly escaped their last outing, rallying with 10 fourth-quarter points to edge Wisconsin 16-13 and keep their perfect season alive. Across the field, Washington, now 6-5, secured bowl eligibility with a 31-19 victory over UCLA. However, the road has been a nightmare for the Huskies—they’re winless in four away games and have yet to cover a spread outside of Seattle.
As 19.5-point underdogs, Washington faces a daunting challenge against an Oregon team laser-focused on locking in their playoff spot.
Washington vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -20 - Spread
Oregon -18.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -1050, Washington +675 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, clear, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
A lot has changed this season compared to the last few Border War matchups, including the spread. Oregon opened as a massive 19.5-point favorite over its rivals. That number briefly came down to -19 and then -18.5 but quickly returned to -19.5.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total has seen a massive drop, much larger than typically seen this early in the week. It opened at 62.5 and has consistently dropped off the table to 50.5, where it currently sits. It has only fallen and hasn’t experienced any spikes, so it’s expected the total will close near 50.5.
Washington’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Huskies have a 6.6% chance of defeating the Ducks on Saturday.
If the win probability holds, Washington will finish 2024 with a 6-6 regular season record. That’s a significant drop in Jedd Fisch’s first year at the helm compared to the 25 total games Washington won in two seasons under Kalen DeBoer. The Huskies did lose quite a bit of talent, and many have faith in Fisch’s ability to rebuild the Husky program into a perennial contender in the Big Ten.
- at Oregon 6.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Oregon has a 93.4% chance of defeating Washington in the Border War on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Ducks would finish as the only unbeaten team in the 2024 regular season and lock up the No. 1 overall seed for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Lanning already has his third consecutive double-digit win season for the Ducks.
- vs. Washington: 93.4%
Prediction for Washington vs. Oregon
On Saturday, Washington faces a daunting task. They walk into Autzen Stadium as heavy underdogs—a role they’ve struggled to cover, going 0-7-1 ATS when facing spreads of 20 points or more since 2006. Their season has been built on gritty defense, ranking sixth nationally in passing yards allowed (166 per game) and 17th in total defense (318 yards per game).
However, the cracks are starting to show. Over their last three games, the Huskies have given up an average of 260 passing yards and 421 total yards, clear signs of a defense running on fumes. And now they’re up against an Oregon offense firing on all cylinders—a matchup no team wants to face.
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For top-ranked Oregon, the goal couldn’t be clearer: win, stay healthy, and march toward the Big Ten Football Championship Game. Dillon Gabriel, once firmly in the Heisman race, hit a rough patch in last week’s narrow 16-13 victory over Wisconsin, failing to throw a touchdown for the first time this season.
Still, Gabriel’s 28 total touchdowns highlight his role as the engine of this offense. Combined with Jordan James’ 1,067 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, Oregon’s arsenal of playmakers is overwhelming for most defenses to handle.
With playoff dreams on the line, Dan Lanning’s Ducks have a chance to put the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season. This is their opportunity to make a statement, and it’s hard to imagine them letting up. Some are calling for Oregon to ease off on Saturday—I don’t think a Lanning-led team knows how to do that.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 13
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