Despite a stumble against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the Miami Hurricanes still hold their destiny in their own hands for the ACC title and a shot at the College Football Playoff. The mission is simple: win every game left.
Standing in their way, however, are the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, eager to spoil Miami’s season. Could Dave Clawson’s squad pull off the upset that turns the ACC Championship race on its head? Here’s our analysis and prediction for Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL).
Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) Betting Preview
All Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -19.5 - Spread
Miami -23.5 - Moneyline
Miami -2800, Wake Forest +1300 - Over/Under
68.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 23, Noon ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Hurricanes fell in the College Football Playoff rankings last week following their loss to Georgia Tech, there’s still a clear path to the postseason. There’s just no room for error anymore. The Vegas spread here implies the Hurricanes should be safe from upset, but we’ve seen weirder results.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 66.5 points and a spread of 24 points, the sportsbooks expect Cam Ward and the Miami offense to put up huge numbers, implying a score close to 45-21 in favor of the Hurricanes.
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
While CFN’s FPM isn’t quite as low on the Demon Deacons’ chances in this one as Vegas is, it still has them as 24-point underdogs. The metric gives them a 7.1% chance to win. While bowl eligibility is mathematically possible, the Demon Deacons should be moderate underdogs in the season finale as well.
- at Miami-FL: 7.1%
- vs. Duke: 32.3%
Miami’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Miami has a 92.9% chance of beating Wake Forest at home. According to our metric, the Hurricanes will be moderate favorites next week against the Syracuse Orange.
If Miami wins out, they will appear in the ACC Championship Game, most likely against the SMU Mustangs. Our metric gives them just over a 65% chance of winning out.
- vs. Wake Forest: 92.9%
- at Syracuse: 70.3%
Prediction for Wake Forest vs. Miami (FL)
With all due respect to Clawson and the Demon Deacons, this matchup is all about the Hurricanes proving they can rise to the occasion when it matters most. If Mario Cristobal has his team focused and ready, Miami should finish the season strong with two wins, setting up a “win-and-in” showdown in the ACC Championship—with a potential College Football Playoff berth on the line.
For Miami, the blueprint is straightforward: provide Cam Ward with enough support so he doesn’t have to carry the team every single week. Four of their six ACC games have come down to the wire, decided by one score, and another (against Duke) required a massive second-half rally to pull off the win.
Last week, Miami’s fortune ran out. But they won’t need luck if they play to their potential—especially on the defensive side of the ball. With their talent level, the Hurricanes should be able to dominate these final two games and secure comfortable victories.
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That said, Wake Forest has the ability to put up points, especially if Hank Bachmeier returns at full strength. Bachmeier was pulled early in the second half against North Carolina last week—not due to injury, but reportedly because the game plan leaned heavily on quarterback runs.
When healthy, Bachmeier keeps the Demon Deacons’ offense firing, so scoring hasn’t been their primary issue. On paper, Miami has the talent to overwhelm them, but the Hurricanes’ defense has been a significant vulnerability—not just for a playoff hopeful, but even by general FBS standards.
Even mid-tier ACC offenses like Duke have delivered season-best performances against Miami’s defense. This raises questions about Miami’s playoff viability and serves as a reminder that no game—no matter how favorable—is a guaranteed victory.
Cam Ward is still Cam Ward, and in a different season, he’d likely be a Heisman frontrunner. Wake Forest’s defense, however, doesn’t match up well with Miami’s offensive weapons and probably won’t be able to disrupt Ward enough to slow him down.
Even so, Miami’s defense hasn’t shown the ability to dominate. It’s hard to see them holding Wake Forest in check enough to cover a 24-point spread. Miami has kept only one ACC opponent (Florida State) under 28 points this season. If Wake Forest reaches 28, the Hurricanes would need 53 points to cover the spread—a tall order.
Miami should do enough to secure the win, Wake Forest should do enough to cover, and together, they’ll likely push the game total over.
Prediction: Miami 42, Wake Forest 27
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