The Notre Dame Fighting Irish hold a perfect 4-0 record against the Virginia Cavaliers, with their most recent meeting in 2021 ending in a dominant 28-3 victory. Entering Week 12 as heavy underdogs with a spread north of three touchdowns, the Cavaliers face an uphill battle. The real question is whether they can muster enough firepower to keep things interesting.
Our Virginia vs. Notre Dame prediction analyzes this matchup, delivering key betting insights to help inform your picks.
Virginia vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Virginia vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -14.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -21.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -2100, Virginia +1100 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | Notre Dame, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, 10 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
In terms of betting trends, there’s value on both sides here. Virginia is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games and 7-0-1 in its last eight on the road. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its previous five contests this season.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Total trends are similarly contrasting, with the under hitting in four of the Cavaliers’ past five bouts but the over cashing in four of the Fighting Irish’s past five.
Virginia’s Winning Probability
UVA is one win away from bowling for the first time since 2019, but getting that last win won’t be easy. The FPM gives the Cavaliers a win probability under 40% in each of their final three games.
- at Notre Dame: 14.1%
- vs. SMU: 27.0%
- at Virginia Tech: 38.1%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Outside of a frankly embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois early in the year, the Fighting Irish have been dominant this season, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t maintain form until the College Football Playoff. They hold win probabilities of over 70% in their three contests to end the regular season.
- vs. Virginia: 85.9%
- vs. Army: 80.6%
- at USC: 73.4%
Prediction for Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is riding high after a dominant 52-3 win over Florida State, while Virginia barely edged out a 24-19 victory against Pittsburgh. Can the Cavaliers pull off back-to-back upsets — or at least cover the spread? I’m leaning toward “No.”
The Irish thrive on the ground, and the stats back it up:
- 214.8 rushing yards per game, 12th
- 5.98 rushing yards per attempt, 4th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If Notre Dame imposes its rushing attack against Virginia’s average run defense — and there’s little reason to think they won’t — the Cavaliers will be forced to rely on their passing game to keep up. That’s a recipe for disaster against an elite Irish defense.
Virginia has allowed the sixth most sacks per game (3.44), while Notre Dame ranks 18th in sacks per game (2.89). Combine that with the Irish leading the nation in defensive dropback success rate and ranking third in EPA per dropback, and the picture is clear: Notre Dame is perfectly built to dominate this matchup.
A Notre Dame win and cover looks like a strong play, but the total might be an even better bet. The Irish have topped 49 points in three of their last four games, including a 52-point explosion against a ranked Navy team just weeks ago.
Prediction: Notre Dame 44, Virginia 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.