When fans saw Vanderbilt heading to Baton Rouge to face LSU, not many expected the betting line to be this close. The Commodores have put together a surprisingly strong season, while Brian Kelly’s Tigers are reeling, with losses piling up and frustration boiling over.
Even as the favorite, a loss to Vanderbilt could send LSU’s fanbase into a full-blown meltdown—and the odds suggest it’s not out of the question. Can the Commodores pull off the upset? Let’s dive into our Vanderbilt vs. LSU prediction to break it down.
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Vanderbilt vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -6 - Spread
LSU -10 - Moneyline
LSU -355, Vanderbilt +280 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Each of these teams seems to be sputtering out at the wrong time. While Vanderbilt has lost two of three, LSU has dropped three in a row, and both offenses are running on fumes. One will have to get back on track on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While a 7.5-point spread seemed crazy three months ago, the line has now settled back at -10 for LSU. The total has also ticked down to 53.5 after starting at 52.5 points. As of now, the spread and total imply a game close to 31-21 in favor of the Tigers.
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas, making the Commodores moderate road underdogs. Vanderbilt has a 34.3% chance to win the game, per the metric. It’ll end with a tough game against the Tennessee Volunteers, but the metric gives it a 55% chance to win one of its two remaining games and get to seven wins.
- at LSU: 34.3%
- vs. Tennessee: 31.2%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU wanted to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff, but both of those goals have been shattered. Now, the Tigers will look to simply finish the year with some momentum. The Tigers have two very winnable games to end the season, with a 65.7% chance to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday.
- vs. Vanderbilt: 65.7%
- vs. Oklahoma: 74.9%
Prediction for Vanderbilt vs. LSU
While both teams share the same record, their trajectories couldn’t be more different—and one side is definitely feeling worse about it.
LSU has now lost three straight to drop to 6-4, and honestly, it could be even worse. Narrow wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss earlier this season easily could (and maybe should) have gone the other way.
I’m not convinced LSU can finish the season strong. As the kids say, the vibes are off.
These games may feel meaningless after falling short of lofty preseason expectations, but they’re critical for LSU’s momentum heading into National Signing Day. A poor finish could put their best recruiting class in years at risk.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is coming off a much-needed bye after getting dismantled by South Carolina. The Commodores’ record still looks solid, but they’re clearly limping toward the finish line.
Both teams are facing offensive struggles, though for different reasons. Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier have both shown flashes of brilliance this season, but recent weeks have revealed some cracks.
For Pavia, the issue seems to be durability. He’s known for his toughness, but the grind of an SEC season is catching up to him. While he hasn’t been officially injured, he took one of the hardest hits of the year against South Carolina, and he hasn’t looked the same since.
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For Nussmeier, it’s all about decision-making. He’s been walking a fine line all season, barely avoiding sacks by releasing the ball at the last second. But over the past three games, that strategy has backfired: 11 of his 12 sacks and nine of his 16 interceptable passes have come during this stretch. What used to be a strength is now a glaring weakness for LSU’s offense.
The result? Both offenses have gone ice-cold. Vanderbilt has averaged just 18.4 points per game since their win over Alabama, while LSU has managed only 17.3 over its last three outings. Whichever team can rediscover its early-season spark will likely come out on top.
I think Vanderbilt’s issues stem more from the grind of SEC play than a fundamental drop-off in ability. LSU, on the other hand, feels like a team that’s been figured out. Opposing defenses have Nussmeier and the Tigers’ offense completely dialed in, and there’s an elephant in the room: Will LSU even play hard the rest of the way? The tension between Brian Kelly, his players, and the fanbase feels like it’s at a breaking point.
I trust Pavia’s ability to make plays, and Vanderbilt’s ground game should find opportunities against LSU’s defense. That might be just enough for the Commodores to pull off the upset. And if they do, don’t be shocked if “Five Candidates to Replace Brian Kelly” articles start popping up.
This game is a litmus test for both programs. If Vanderbilt’s defense can stifle LSU, it could set the stage for a long offseason in Baton Rouge.
Regardless of the outcome, I’m all in on the under—it’s one of the better value plays this week. That said, I’m leaning toward Pavia and Vanderbilt pulling off the outright upset. Fresh legs and a hungry mindset might just make the difference.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 27, LSU 24
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