“Weekday CUSA” heads back to Ruston in Week 9 as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs welcome the UTEP Miners to Joe Aillet Stadium for a must-win matchup for both programs. So, who wins?
Our UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech Betting Preview
All UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana Tech -6 - Spread
Not Available - Moneyline
Not Available - Over/Under
Not Available - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Joe Aillet Stadium | Ruston, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Tuesday night marks the 21st edition of UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech, and it’s a matchup that the Bulldogs have had the better of historically. Sonny Cumbie’s team is 16-3-1 in the all-time head-to-head and hasn’t lost to their CUSA foe in Ruston since 2004. UTEP has beaten Louisiana Tech just twice this millennium.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
At the time of writing, DraftKings Sportsbook hadn’t released the UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech odds. However, using the CFN FPM spread, we have an idea of how this game should shake out. UTEP is coming off just its second cover this season and fails to cover by an average of 1.6 points, whereas Louisiana Tech is 3-3 ATS this fall while covering, on average, by 0.4 points.
UTEP’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, UTEP only has a 33.6% chance of beating Louisiana Tech on Tuesday night. However, it is worth noting that since getting their first win of the season last time out, that probability has ballooned from 26.2%.
The remaining win probabilities for UTEP are below:
- at Louisiana Tech: 33.6%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 50.6%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 71.6%
- at Tennessee: 0.1%
- at New Mexico State: 49.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, UTEP would end the 2024 season with a 3-9 record — the same as in the final season under Dana Dimel. However, the game against the New Mexico State Aggies factors in a road disadvantage, so there is a chance of ending the season with a year-on-year improvement.
Louisiana Tech’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Louisiana Tech has a 66.4% chance of winning this game. Although their loss last week has impacted how the CFN FPM views the Bulldogs, they are still a significant favorite to get the job done on Tuesday night.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Bulldogs:
- vs. UTEP: 66.4%
- at Sam Houston: 35.9%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 47.2%
- at Western Kentucky: 21.9%
- vs. Arkansas: 17%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 80.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Louisiana Tech would end the 2024 campaign with a 4-8 record. That would be the most single-season wins for the Bulldogs since the disrupted 2020 season. However, the pressure will likely be mounting on head coach Cumbie after three consecutive losing campaigns.
Prediction for UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech
UTEP heads to Ruston after their first win of the 2024 college football season and the first win of the Scotty Walden era. There were jubilant scenes in the Sun Bowl, and they’ll try and take that momentum into the clash with a Louisiana Tech team that succumbed to an overtime upset on the road at the New Mexico State Aggies in Week 9.
Can the Miners make it two on the bounce? Can the Bulldogs bounce back with a win at home? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
UTEP has a couple of significant injuries that could impact their chances on Tuesday night. Quarterback Cade McConnell, arguably the safer pair of hands under center, is absent from their early depth chart after head coach Walden told the media on Friday that he could be done for the year.
Meanwhile, defensive back AJ Odums is missing from the initial depth chart and is reportedly set to see a specialist for an undisclosed injury. The former New Mexico standout leads the team in pass breakups (4) and is second in interceptions (1) despite not playing since the defeat to the Colorado State Rams in late September.
While there will be a focus on the UTEP quarterback situation, they came alive against FIU with a rejuvenated ground game led by Jevon Jackson. Between Jackson and Ezell Jolly, the Miners have had back-to-back 100+ yard rushing performances. However, the Bulldogs rush defense is the best in CUSA, allowing just 104.17 yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns.
As a result, Louisiana Tech should have enough strength on defense to hold the UTEP offense. Meanwhile, a UTEP unit that has allowed 6.03 yards per play and the third most touchdowns in the conference should allow young Bulldogs quarterback Evan Bullock to build his relationship with standout wide receiver Tru Edwards.
Prediction: UTEP 21, Louisiana Tech 28
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