If preseason predictions held true, the Utah Utes and UCF Knights would be clashing on Friday with a Big 12 Championship berth on the line. Instead, after two challenging seasons, this matchup carries no postseason stakes—only questions about the futures of head coaches Kyle Whittingham and Gus Malzahn.
Who comes out on top? Our Utah vs. UCF preview breaks down everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they look to close out a tough 2024 college football season.
Utah vs. UCF Betting Preview
All Utah vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UCF -2 - Spread
UCF -10 - Moneyline
UCF -375, Utah +295 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday night marks the first-ever matchup between the Utes and Knights. Unsurprisingly, two teams at opposite ends of the country have managed to avoid each other up until now. However, with the former Pac-12 powerhouse transitioning to the Big 12, the Utes will now face the former AAC outfit twice in the next four years.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Utah enters the game as a significant underdog, according to DraftKings, although our metric forecasts a much closer game. The Utes are on a seven-game losing streak and have been unable to win a single game as an underdog this year. UCF has hardly been prolific as a favorite, going 3-6 in that situation, and that latter stat could be a pointer to what we’ll see in Week 14.
Utah’s Winning Probability
Utah started the season 4-0, but quarterback issues plagued the Utes once they got into conference play, and they’ve lost seven straight games, five by one score. They’ll have just a 47.2% chance to get back in the win column on Friday, per CFN’s FPM.
- at UCF: 47.2%
UCF’s Winning Probability
Similarly, the Knights have spiraled after starting 3-0, with only a blowout win over Arizona right in the middle of the season to stop the losing streak. Sitting at 4-7, the Knights have little to play for on Friday outside of positive momentum heading into the offseason. The FPM gives them a 52.8% chance to win.
- vs. Utah: 52.8%
Prediction for Utah vs. UCF
Both Utah and UCF perfectly highlight just how vital the quarterback position is. Between them, these two teams have cycled through six different starting quarterbacks this season, with predictably rough results.
For UCF, KJ Jefferson didn’t live up to the coaching staff’s expectations, and the passing game fell apart once conference play began. The eventual move to third-stringer Dylan Rizk brought some stability to the passing attack but came at the cost of what had been one of the Big 12’s best rushing offenses.
Utah, meanwhile, has been crushed by injuries. Cam Rising went down yet again, forcing true freshman Isaac Wilson into action, likely before he was ready. The Utes found a bit of life with Brandon Rose as a dual-threat quarterback against BYU, but when Rose got hurt, Wilson was thrust back into the starting role.
Since October, Utah has only surpassed 200 passing yards twice—and those games ironically ended in their two worst losses during that stretch.
On the other side, UCF has rediscovered its scoring touch but can’t seem to stop any offense with a pulse. Their defensive struggles have largely rendered their offensive resurgence meaningless.
When it comes to a matchup of two struggling teams, I’ll side with the one that has the better defense. UCF’s inability to slow down most offenses gives Utah a chance to win outright—if their offense can show even a flicker of life.
That’s a big “if,” though. Utah has failed to score 25 points in eight straight games (their 28 last week included a defensive touchdown). But there’s always an element of luck in winning tight games, and the Utes feel overdue.
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If Utah pulls this off, it could set up an intriguing offseason for both programs. UCF may be running out of patience with Gus Malzahn, while whispers of Kyle Whittingham’s potential retirement continue to circulate.
Could this be a “win one for the Gipper” moment for the Utes? And if they lose, are the Knights on the hunt for a new head coach?
The cynic in me wants answers to both questions. But for now, I like Utah straight up in what’s sure to be an ugly, “ball control and defense” kind of game.
Prediction: Utah 27, UCF 24
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