The Colorado State Rams have emerged as one of the biggest surprises in the Mountain West Conference this season. Even during their impressive five-game winning streak, the Rams flew under the radar with little attention from the media. Yet as recently as last week, they were in control of their own path to a Mountain West Championship.
While that dream now feels more like a long shot, it’s still within the realm of possibility. But first, the Rams need to handle business at home against the 4-7 Utah State Aggies. Get all the key betting details, including our take on the spread and total, in this Utah State vs. Colorado State prediction.
Utah State vs. Colorado State Betting Preview
All Utah State vs. Colorado State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado State -8 - Spread
Colorado State -5 - Moneyline
Colorado State -198, Utah State +164 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Canvas Stadium | Fort Collins, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
44 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
Utah State has shown a surprising amount of late-season fight for a team that lost its head coach just weeks before the season and started 1-6. The Aggies have won three of four and clash with the 7-4 Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins on Friday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Colorado State is a moderate home favorite of six points, but the total of 59 points probably says more about the visitors. The Aggies have struggled defensively this season but have had little trouble racking up points on offense. The spread and total imply a final score close to 33-27, in favor of the Rams.
Utah State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is close to the Vegas line, making the Aggies eight-point underdogs. That translates to a winning percentage of 26.6%. While the Aggies don’t have anything tangible to play for, the momentum would be helpful as the team heads into the offseason.
- at Colorado State: 26.6%
Colorado State’s Winning Probability
Colorado State has a 73.4% chance to win, per FPM. If the Rams win and the UNLV Rebels lose to the Nevada Wolf Pack, the Rams will make the Mountain West Championship game. The Rebels are overwhelming favorites, with a 93.1% chance to beat Nevada, so Colorado State’s chances of making the conference title game are slim, just 5.06%.
- vs. Utah State: 73.4%
Prediction for Utah State vs. Colorado State
The spotlight in this matchup is squarely on a revitalized Utah State defense. Let’s be clear — through the first nine games of the season, that unit was nothing short of a disaster. The Aggies allowed 38 or more points in seven of their first eight FBS contests, including a brutal six-game streak to open the year.
During one especially rough stretch, Utah State surrendered an average of 51.75 points per game over four consecutive outings.
But the tide has turned in recent weeks. Over their last three wins, Utah State’s defense has allowed just 55 points combined. If that version of the Aggies shows up Saturday, Colorado State could be in for a fight.
That said, the Rams have been solid in Mountain West play, though their early success can partly be attributed to a favorable schedule. Colorado State has only beaten one bowl-eligible team this season and has managed just 20.4 points per game against FBS opponents.
Still, Jay Norvell’s squad has often been in control, winning many of their games by multiple scores. The Rams may not light up the stat sheet, but they’ve consistently outperformed their competition.
If Utah State’s defensive resurgence is the real deal, they could pull off the upset and finish with a winning conference record — no small feat given their rocky start. But for that to happen, their defense must sustain its recent form, and that’s where my doubts come into play.
While the Aggies have shown improvement, much of their recent success stems from opponents’ miscues rather than dominant defensive play.
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For instance, against San Diego State, the Aztecs turned the ball over on downs and punted twice from Aggie territory. A week earlier, Hawaii committed 12 penalties and threw five interceptions. Yes, Utah State capitalized, but they were aided by one of the worst offenses in the FBS.
Because of this, I’m backing Colorado State to not only win but also cover. With Avery Morrow continuing his strong season, the Rams should be able to move the ball effectively against Utah State’s defense.
While the Aggies have improved, I don’t see their defense doing enough to compensate for an offense that could struggle. The total for this game is dropping, so I’d jump on it quickly — I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers project.
Prediction: Colorado State 31, Utah State 23
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