Few Group of Five schools have experienced a more disappointing season than the USF Bulls. Once seen as a dark-horse contender for the College Football Playoff, the Bulls have struggled to be competitive.
However, a favorable upcoming schedule puts bowl eligibility within reach—if they can perform closer to their preseason expectations. On Friday, they face off against the Florida Atlantic Owls, whose slim bowl chances hinge on this matchup. Dive into our USF vs. Florida Atlantic prediction to see which team we believe will come out on top.
USF vs. FAU Betting Preview
All USF vs. Florida Atlantic odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USF -6.5 - Spread
USF -2.5 - Moneyline
USF -135, Florida Atlantic +114 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Nov. 1, 7:30 ET - Location
FAU Stadium | Boca Raton, Florida - Predicted Weather at Kick
77 degrees, clear, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
If you asked each team’s respective coaching staff, they’d tell you their group of guys has underperformed this year. While Florida Atlantic didn’t have a realistic chance to win the conference, 2-5 is quite the underwhelming start. Still, that staff might not feel as bad as Alex Golesh’s squad, who thought double-digit wins could be a possibility and yet sit at 3-4.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line is indicative of that, as the Bulls are only 2.5-point road favorites. A 48-point total means that Vegas expects a game close to 25-23 in favor of USF.
USF’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit higher on the Bulls in this one than Vegas. USF is a slightly bigger favorite (6.5 points), with a win probability of 67.7%, per the metric. The metric has the Bulls favorites in their last three after a toss-up next week.
- at Florida Atlantic: 67.7%
- vs. Navy: 50.4%
- at Charlotte: 65.1%
- vs. Tulsa: 75.3%
- at Rice: 67.7%
FAU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Florida Atlantic a 32.3% chance to win and has the Owls in tight contests the rest of the way, with winning probabilities between 46 and 59% in their remaining four games after this week. While bowl eligibility isn’t a complete impossibility, it is statistically improbable.
- vs. USF: 32.3%
- at ECU: 47.5%
- vs. Temple: 58.9%
- vs. Charlotte: 50.4%
- at Tulsa: 46.2%
Prediction for USF vs. FAU
I was all in on USF before the season, even touting quarterback Byrum Brown as a legitimate Heisman contender, but things haven’t quite unfolded as I’d hoped. Despite Golesh’s uptempo offense and a solid core of skill players, the Bulls haven’t found that high-scoring groove I expected.
On the other side, Tom Herman and his staff likely set high expectations too, though I can’t say I’m shocked that the Owls have struggled. Their rushing game has been decent, but the passing attack has been hit or miss, often missing at critical moments, which has led to some of the country’s worst third-down and red-zone stats.
Defensively, it’s a different story. The secondary has been solid, but the run defense? Not so much, allowing 5.4 yards per carry.
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That’s why I think USF’s offense could break through on Friday—especially with Brown’s dual-threat capability adding a spark to their ground game. If the Bulls commit to the run, I don’t see how an FAU defense giving up 231 rushing yards per game can hold up.
However, the only kicker here is that Brown as the starting quarterback isn’t a given. Head coach Alex Golesh said this week that “they’ll cross that bridge when they get there” around starting Brown over Bryce Archie as Brown is set to return from injury.
The key here is that FAU is built to play with a lead. If they can force an early turnover or two and capitalize, their ground game might just keep them competitive for four quarters.
But if the Owls fall behind, it’s over. Even a struggling USF offense has enough to keep the chains moving against them.
Maybe I’m holding onto my preseason optimism, but I genuinely believe the Bulls are the better team. It’s time they prove it.
Take USF in what should be a steady, midweek showdown.
Prediction: USF 27, Florida Atlantic 16
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