The UNLV Rebels have been a breakout story in 2024, boasting an impressive 8-2 record in what’s shaping up to be one of the best seasons in program history. But standing in their way next are the San Jose State Spartans, a team that has long been their Achilles’ heel with a dominant 21-6-1 all-time record, including four consecutive victories. Will UNLV finally overcome their struggles against SJSU, or will the Spartans continue their reign over this conference rivalry?
Our UNLV vs. San Jose State prediction dives into the matchup, delivering key betting insights to help inform your wagers.
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UNLV vs. San Jose State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -10.5 - Spread
UNLV -7.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -270, San Jose State +220 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
10:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 22 - Location
CEFCU Stadium | San Jose, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 9 mph winds, rain - How To Watch
FS1
UNLV may be 8-2 and only a game back from a conference title bid, but the program has been less than stellar against the spread, going 1-5 in the last six games. SJSU hasn’t been any better, going 1-5 ATS over the same period.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Speaking of “over,” the Rebels have helped push the score over the total in five of their previous seven outings. The Spartans have had no such luck, with the under cashing in four of their last five.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels need to win out to keep their conference hopes alive, but they’ll also need a Boise State Broncos or Colorado State Rams loss to book their ticket to the Mountain West Championship.
- at San Jose State: 78.1%
- vs. Nevada: 90.8%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
At 6-4, the Spartans are already bowl-bound, but their 3-3 conference record will keep them out of the title match for the fourth straight year. After a tough matchup with the Rebels, San Jose State will finish the season with a rivalry revival against the Stanford Cardinal in the Bill Walsh Legacy Game.
- vs. UNLV: 21.9%
- vs. Stanford: 50.6%
Prediction for UNLV vs. San Jose State
The Spartans had Boise State on upset alert early in Week 12, jumping out to a 14-0 lead, but the momentum didn’t last as they fell 42-21. Meanwhile, the Rebels took care of business with a similar scoreline, defeating the San Diego State Aztecs 41-20.
If there’s one thing you can count on in this matchup, it’s that San Jose State will lean heavily on the passing game (65.3% pass rate, 1st in the nation). But don’t expect QB Walker Eget to replicate his 446-yard, three-touchdown performance from last week. UNLV’s defense, allowing just 6.7 yards per pass attempt compared to Boise’s 8.1, presents a tougher challenge.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
UNLV’s defensive metrics speak for themselves. The Rebels rank 64th in defensive dropback success rate, a solid step up from Boise State’s 80th. Head coach Barry Odom’s defense has also excelled in key areas: tied for 13th in sacks per game (3.00), 23rd in third-down conversion rate allowed (32.9%), and 29th in early down EPA. They’ve proven they can create pressure and get off the field.
On offense, QB Hajj-Malik Williams (22 TDs, just four turnovers), RB Jai’Den Thomas (5.9 ypc), and WR Ricky White III (63 catches, 867 yards, 10 TDs) should have a field day against a San Jose State defense that has struggled all year. The Spartans rank 77th in scoring defense (25.9 ppg), 95th in total defense (394.0 ypg), and 107th in defensive EPA (0.061).
Expect the Rebels to win and cover in this one, though the total might end up being a little high given their pace of play and San Jose State’s surprising red-zone strength (77.5%, 30th in the nation).
Prediction: UNLV 34, San Jose State 17
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