Utah State holds a commanding 19-7 advantage in the all-time series against UNLV, but the Rebels are turning the page under a new regime. Will they make it a tight contest against a sizable Week 7 spread?
Let’s dig into this overlooked Mountain West showdown with a complete breakdown of the odds and our take in the UNLV vs. Utah State prediction.
UNLV vs. Utah State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Utah State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -15 - Spread
UNLV -19 - Moneyline
UNLV -1200, Utah State +750 - Over/Under
66.5 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 11 - Location
Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, 5 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
UNLV’s spread has increased by a point and a half, even if the FPM believes this game could be closer than the sportsbooks expect.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Trend-wise, the over is the play in this one, having hit in three of Utah State’s last five games overall and three of UNLV’s previous five contests at home.
The spread also favors the Rebels, with the Aggies 1-4 this season and UNLV 4-1.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The odds of the Rebels winning in Week 7 — 87.4%. They’ll need the win, too, with Oregon State and Boise State comprising their next two games.
- at Oregon State: 55.6%
- vs. Boise State: 51.2%
- at Hawaii: 83.0%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 79.6%
- vs. Nevada: 92.1%
Utah State’s Winning Probability
Utah State’s 12.6% win probability against UNLV is disheartening, but it’s not even the lowest on their remaining schedule.
- vs. New Mexico: 49.4%
- at Wyoming: 50.6%
- at Washington State: 9.2%
- vs. Hawaii: 50.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 50.4%
- at Colorado State: 38.1%
Prediction for UNLV vs. Utah State
If Utah State’s defense is a sieve—surrendering 483.2 yards (sixth worst) and 41.4 points (fourth worst) per game—then UNLV’s offense is a faucet set to be cranked wide open.
The Rebels have been putting up points in bunches all season, averaging 44 per game (ninth nationally) while seamlessly transitioning from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback. In fact, the Campbell transfer has taken their offense to another level, completing nearly 40% more of his passes and tacking on an extra 4.4 yards per attempt.
No one has benefited more from the upgrade than star WR Ricky White III, who’s posted back-to-back 100+ yard games, going 10-127-2 against Fresno State and 10-135-1 against Syracuse.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
But it’s UNLV’s relentless ground attack that should truly concern Utah State. With a 66.7% run rate—the fourth-highest in the country—and an impressive 5.7 yards per carry (12th best), the Rebels are built to dominate on the ground. Meanwhile, the Aggies are getting gashed on the run, allowing 238.5 YPG (126th nationally).
Needing statement wins to keep any playoff hopes alive, expect UNLV to pile up the points. Utah State likely won’t pull off an upset, but with 21+ points in all but one game this season, the over looks like the safest play.
Prediction: UNLV 48, Utah State 24
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