A college football championship game under the Friday night lights? Yes, please! A Mountain West Championship rematch between the UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos with College Football Playoff win-and-in stakes? Someone pinch us—this is the stuff college football dreams are made of.
Who takes the crown? Our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and projects the winner of the Mountain West Championship Game.
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -1 - Spread
Boise State -4.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -198, UNLV +164 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, ID - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday marks the 14th matchup between the Broncos and the Rebels, and it’s been a ludicrously one-sided affair on the whole. Boise State has won the last eight encounters dating back to 1977, including their meeting earlier this year. Although it’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, the Broncos enter the Mountain West Championship Game as the favorite.
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In fact, as of Wednesday of title game week, the odds in this matchup are exactly the same as they were for the first matchup. The Broncos covered the spread and won outright in late October, but they’ve failed to cover in three of their last four. Meanwhile, UNLV is 2-1 outright and ATS as an underdog in 2024. These aren’t your dad’s Rebels, they’re the real deal.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Rebels, giving them a winning probability of 49.2%. A win on Friday could make the Rebels the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, which would make them the 12 seed after fading from much of the public eye after starting the year 4-0.
- at Boise State: 49.2%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Broncos are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 50.8%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and a win could potentially give them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
- vs. UNLV: 50.8%
Prediction for UNLV vs. Boise State
The chess match between these two coaching staffs on Oct. 25 was a thing of beauty.
Surprisingly, Ashton Jeanty—usually a dynamo—had a tough time finding running lanes, with UNLV holding the Heisman candidate to just 3.9 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Maddux Madsen shined on red zone read plays, tallying 58 yards on just three carries. The Broncos followed Syracuse’s blueprint for beating the Rebels: dominate time of possession and limit UNLV’s offensive opportunities. Boise State converted all four of their fourth-down attempts, keeping the ball for 34 minutes.
Despite averaging over a yard per play more than Boise State, UNLV was outgained by 25 yards—a testament to the Broncos’ ability to control the game. That said, few teams have moved the ball against Boise State this season like the Rebels did, even with just 63 combined yards from receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus.
The big question now: can Boise State replicate their success?
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I’m fascinated by how these coaching staffs will adjust for round two. Spencer Danielson and his crew need to find ways to get Jeanty going after UNLV stymied him in the first meeting.
On the other side, Barry Odom has to figure out how to unleash White and De Jesus while continuing to contain Jeanty and countering Madsen’s mobility.
The adjustments will be key. Expect Boise State to incorporate Jeanty more in the passing game, while UNLV focuses on disrupting timing with edge pressure.
When making this prediction, I keep circling back to that glaring yards-per-play difference. In October, UNLV may have been the better team, even if the scoreboard didn’t reflect it.
In the rematch, I like the Rebels to capitalize on a few key moments. Their versatility on offense, guided by Brennan Marion’s creative schemes, gives them the edge. They can pivot to an entirely new game plan with ease, whereas Boise State might remain overly reliant on Jeanty.
Don’t get me wrong—Jeanty is a game-changer. But in a matchup this close, I’m leaning toward the Rebels to pull the upset.
This could easily be the game of the weekend. Buckle up for what promises to be a thrilling and tactical battle. My pick? The Rebels in a surprisingly low-scoring, hard-fought showdown.
Prediction: UNLV 27, Boise State 24
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