It’s the marquee game we all knew we needed to headline the Week 0 slate of college football’s triumphant return. And the UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction, odds, and full betting preview indicates just why you should be excited to watch this should-be classic contest.
UMass vs. New Mexico State Betting Preview
- Spread
New Mexico State (-7) - Moneyline
New Mexico State (-275); UMass (+230) - Over/Under
44.5 total points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM - Predicted Weather at Kick
92 degrees, mostly sunny, 6-7 mph winds - How to Watch
FuboTV, ESPN
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
All values below come from FanDuel’s multi-team entries for the weekend. For each team’s depth chart:
UMass Depth Chart | New Mexico State Depth Chart
- QB Diego Pavia, New Mexico State ($7,700)
- QB Taisun Phommachanh, UMass ($6,600)
- RB Star Thomas, New Mexico State ($6,100)
- RB Jamoni Jones, New Mexico State ($6,000)
- RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, UMass ($5,900)
- RB Monte Watkins, New Mexico State ($5,700)
- RB Jackson Paradis, UMass ($5,600)
- RB Greg Desrosiers Jr., UMass ($5,500)
- WR Kordell David, New Mexico State ($7,000)
- WR Jonathan Brady, New Mexico State ($6,100)
- WR Christian Wells, UMass ($5,600)
- WR George Johnson III, UMass ($5,600)
- WR Mark Pope, UMass ($5,500)
- TE Gino Campiotti, UMass ($5,400)
- TE Thomaz Whitford, New Mexico State ($5,100)
It’s perfectly fine if you aren’t quite as familiar with these players as you may be with other programs. It’s fine.
But you’re here to be educated, so allow me to indicate why you should think about nabbing Diego Pavia as a low-end, potential high-ceiling quarterback option in a weekend that also features Caleb Williams.
Pavia is a true dual-threat quarterback, rushing for nearly six yards a carry on designed runs and a threat near the goal line. Against Liberty last season, he showcased that with three scores on the ground.
Pavia is a near-lifetime 5.5 yards per carry quarterback, and UMass’ defense is allowing the same over that same time period. He’s a viable threat on the ground in this one.
Additionally, Pavia threw for 13 scores and had multiple touchdowns against this very same UMass defense. And he did so with splitting reps in the backfield. It’s his time to shine for the Aggies and Pavia is absolutely on the hook for a potential four-score game once again.
Grab him and pay the premium elsewhere.
Otherwise, in this outing, the other viable options could very well be Kordell David or Jonathan Brady, as they’re likely to be on the receiving end of potentially multiple receiving touchdowns against UMass’ porous secondary.
Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams is an intriguing back in most situations as they’ll lean into his tough running style, but the Aggie defense is great at limiting running backs outside the tackles.
Grab Pavia — be glad you did — and sit back and enjoy this classic.
Prediction for UMass vs. New Mexico State
As mentioned above in our DFS advice, the UMass defense may be strong in some facets and getting better, but on the surface, they’re still a work in progress under the legendary Don Brown. New Mexico State is in the middle of their own turnaround with Jerry Kill at the helm, and certainly are a step or two higher on the proverbial rebuild ladder.
As such, the Aggies are being given a touchdown and that seems … generous.
Pavia is up there with some of the top Group of Five quarterbacks, not just Conference USA signal-callers, and he should be considered a favorite to lead this team to multiple victories this year.
He’s a slippery runner, a sound passer, and his offensive line and skill players only got better this offseason. UMass may have added a few players of their own in the secondary, but it’s not quite enough and too early for them to play cohesive football to limit a player like Pavia.
Prediction: New Mexico State 27, UMass 13
