Year Two under Hugh Freeze hasn’t unfolded the way the Auburn Tigers had hoped. Sitting at 3-6 heading into Week 12, the Tigers face the daunting task of winning out just to become bowl-eligible. But if Auburn falters against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, Freeze could find himself worrying more about his job security than the team’s postseason hopes.
On the other side, Louisiana-Monroe is chasing just the second bowl bid in program history. Taking down an SEC opponent to achieve that would be a program-defining moment. Can the Warhawks pull off the upset? Here’s our breakdown of this UL-Monroe vs. Auburn matchup.
UL-Monroe vs. Auburn Betting Preview
All Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Auburn -10 - Spread
Auburn -24.5 - Moneyline
Auburn -3200, Louisiana-Monroe +1400 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET - Location
Jordan-Hare Stadium | Auburn, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Auburn definitely needs a good showing on Saturday. It’s not just a loss that could doom Freeze, but a too-close-for-comfort win could also hurt his future chances. That being said, this is a big line to cover against a competent team, and it suggests Vegas thinks little of the ULM offense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 46 and a 24.5-point spread, Vegas projects a final score around 35-11 in Auburn’s favor.
UL-Monroe’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is much closer than the Vegas line suggests, making the Warhawks 10-point underdogs. Their winning probability in this game is 22.6%, the Warhawks’ lowest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at Auburn: 22.6%
- at Arkansas State: 49.2%
- vs. Louisiana: 25.1%
Auburn’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Auburn has a 77.4% chance of beating the Warhawks at home. The Tigers won’t be happy with four wins, but since the last two are against SEC powers, they’d be wise to collect a win against ULM.
- vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 77.4%
- vs. Texas A&M: 17%
- at Alabama: 5.9%
Prediction for UL-Monroe vs. Auburn
This matchup offers plenty of storylines, but if you’re expecting a showcase of high-powered offense, you’ll be disappointed. Quarterback play is likely to be mediocre at best. Payton Thorne has shown flashes of competence this season, but Auburn’s offensive struggles run much deeper than just him.
The numbers tell the story: Auburn’s offense ranks 44th in yards per play—respectable on the surface—but they consistently fail to convert opportunities, owning the fourth-worst red zone offense in the nation.
As for ULM, their offense isn’t much better, even without factoring in the difference in competition. While the Warhawks are slightly more efficient in the red zone, they rank 125th in total yards per game, meaning moving the ball has been a constant battle.
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Auburn should win this game. If Hugh Freeze is smart, he’ll rely heavily on Jarquez Hunter to exploit ULM’s shaky rushing defense. The Tigers have the tools to physically dominate this matchup. But if they don’t? That could spell trouble on the Plains.
Auburn holds the edge, but the real question is whether they’ll cover the spread.
This feels like a game where Freeze might look to pad his offense’s stats. While ULM’s defense deserves credit, there’s only so much they can do against an SEC offensive line pounding the ball every play.
If Freeze decides to pile on the points, Auburn should cover—but surprises are always possible. If ULM’s pass rush can create some pressure, the Tigers won’t have an easy path to victory.
In the end, I think Auburn pulls away, but the scoreline might not tell the full story of how close this game felt. Tigers fans likely won’t leave feeling reassured. This will be a defensive battle, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Freeze tries to pitch a shutout.
If you’re betting, take the under. Just don’t mistake this result as evidence that Auburn has suddenly turned the corner.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Louisiana-Monroe 10
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