If you’ve been off the grid for the past few weeks and decided a Fenway Bowl preview was your grand reentry into the world, welcome back. Oh, and by the way, Bill Belichick is now the head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.
For those who’ve been paying attention, you might still be surprised to learn that North Carolina has one more game left this season. Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies, guided by their own former NFL head coach, are chasing just the third nine-win season in program history. Curious which team has the edge? Here’s our UConn vs. North Carolina prediction.
UConn vs. North Carolina Wasabi Fenway Bowl Betting Preview
All UConn vs. North Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
North Carolina -7 - Spread
North Carolina -2.5 - Moneyline
North Carolina -135, UConn +114 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 11 a.m. ET - Location
Fenway Park | Boston, MA - How To Watch
ESPN
While the Tar Heels aren’t any more affected by opt-outs due to the transfer portal than other teams, the recent events of Belichick’s hiring have bettors thinking North Carolina will be a bit distracted. UConn, on the other hand, is relatively unaffected by opt-outs, though some injuries and a transfer in the secondary could have that unit looking thin.
The line on this game has moved somewhat significantly. After starting at North Carolina -6, the line has moved to its current number of -2. The key question mark is that we haven’t heard anything about star running back Omarion Hampton, who makes the Tar Heels’ offense go. The total has moved down slightly as well, from 56.5 to 54.5.
UConn’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Huskies, making UConn a seven-point underdog.
- vs. North Carolina: 31.2%
North Carolina’s Winning Probability
Last week’s events might be somewhat distracting, but on paper, the Tar Heels should be the better team.
- vs. UConn: 68.8%
Prediction for UConn vs. North Carolina
Good teams don’t get rattled by media attention. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, I’m not sold on them being a good team.
North Carolina hasn’t beaten a bowl-eligible opponent since August, going 0-6 in their opportunities to do so. The offense and defense have been out of sync, and any success they’ve had has revolved around Hampton, who’s averaged 156 rushing yards per game and over 29 touches in their wins.
If Hampton opts out of the Fenway Bowl, most of North Carolina’s offense will be opting out with him.
Hampton has accounted for 73% of the Tar Heels’ rushing yards and leads the team in receptions. He’d be the biggest non-quarterback opt-out of the bowl season—on top of the multiple offensive linemen North Carolina is likely to be without on Dec. 28.
Meanwhile, the Huskies have been trending in the opposite direction. After a blowout loss in their opener, UConn hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points, taking care of business against weaker teams and hanging tough with ACC opponents.
Following three one-score losses to ACC teams—including two that won nine games—UConn is eager to prove they can compete with the conference.
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UConn’s defense has quietly been one of the best in the country, holding nine of their 12 opponents under 28 points. Their front seven is talented, healthy, and motivated for a bowl game that clearly means a lot to the players and coaching staff.
The Huskies have shown a knack for frustrating opposing offenses by taking away their biggest strengths.
With North Carolina seemingly more focused on the transfer portal and UConn proving themselves all season, I’m ignoring the logos and backing the team that looks better on paper and on the field. That’s before factoring in the chaos surrounding a Tar Heels team in flux.
Take UConn and the under. They’ll grind this one out and frustrate North Carolina. If Hampton plays, it’ll give me pause. But without their best player, I don’t see the Tar Heels scoring enough to keep pace with the Huskies.
Prediction: UConn 26, North Carolina 21
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