The UCF Knights put an end to their five-game losing streak in dominant fashion, steamrolling the Arizona Wildcats 56-12. But the question now is, can they keep the momentum alive in Week 11, or will they stumble into another skid? History isn’t exactly on their side—they’ve faced the Arizona State Sun Devils just once before, suffering a 46-13 blowout loss back in 2002.
Our UCF vs. Arizona State prediction dives deep into the matchup, delivering essential betting insights to help you make smarter wagers.
UCF vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All UCF vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona State -8 - Spread
Arizona State -2.5 - Moneyline
Arizona State -130, UCF +110 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Mountain America Stadium | Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, 4 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
ESPN2
Based on trends, there’s an obvious pick against the spread in this one: ASU.
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The Sun Devils are 6-2 straight up and ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Meanwhile, UCF is just 2-4 ATS in their previous six bouts.
The total trends are far less clear. The over has hit in seven of the Knights’ previous nine contests, but the total went under in five of Arizona State’s last seven.
UCF’s Winning Probability
Even though UCF needs just two wins to go bowling, they may not achieve them. The FPM gives the Knights lower than 30% win probabilities in their next two matchups, with the season finale against Utah sitting just above.
- at Arizona State: 26.2%
- at West Virginia: 27.0%
- at Utah: 33.6%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
The Sun Devils are en route to a bowl game for the first time in three years, but they’re playing for a spot in the Big 12 title match. The run begins with UCF before ranked duels against Kansas State and BYU.
- vs. UCF: 73.8%
- at Kansas State: 32.3%
- vs. BYU: 26.6%
- at Arizona: 51.8%
Prediction for UCF vs. Arizona State
The Knights might boast the most productive rushing attack in the Power Five (272.3 yards per game), but the Sun Devils are no pushover when it comes to stopping the run, allowing just 111.9 ypg (27th nationally).
Last week, they stifled reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon, holding him to just 24 yards on 11 carries. While UCF’s RJ Harvey has surpassed 120 yards in all but three games this season and is bound to make his mark, ASU’s defense could make life difficult for him between the tackles.
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The real wild card in this matchup is freshman QB Dylan Rizk, who delivered a dazzling debut last week, completing 20 of 25 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns. The key question: was that a fluke against a weak defense or the beginning of a breakout?
While Rizk may have a bright future in Orlando, he’ll face a tougher test this week against an ASU defense ranked 53rd in success rate and 34th in predicted points added per play. Expect Rizk to come back down to Earth in Week 11.
However, you’ll have to just bank on QB Sam Leavitt to lead the Sun Devils to their fifth straight home win as RB Cam Skattebo is expected to miss the game against UCF, putting the total points scored by ASU in a small bit of jeopardy.
Prediction: Arizona State 31, UCF 20
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