With the UCF Knights joining the conference just last year, their Week 8 showdown marks the first-ever clash with the Iowa State Cyclones. And if the spread is any sign, their visit to Ames, Iowa, might not be a warm welcome.
Get the latest betting odds, in-depth spread analysis, and our top pick in this UCF vs. Iowa State preview ahead of Saturday’s Big 12 matchup.
UCF vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All UCF vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -13 - Spread
Iowa State -13 - Moneyline
Iowa State -575, UCF +425 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 19 - Location
Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 8 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
FS1
While the spread has increased by a point and a half in favor of Iowa State since opening, the real mover has been the total, which started at 46.5.
That’s good news for the under, which has hit in four of UCF’s last five games on the road and 10 of the Cyclones’ last 13 at home.
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Even if the spread has grown, the trends are still on the home team’s side:
- Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests overall.
- The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Big 12 opponents.
UCF’s Winning Probability
If the spread didn’t make it clear, the Knights aren’t expected to leave Ames with a W. In fact, the FPM gives them a 17.2% chance of producing such an outcome. But it’s not all bleak for the black and gold, as that’s their lowest win probability across their final six games:
- vs. BYU: 24.5%
- vs. Arizona: 35.4%
- at Arizona State: 35.4%
- at West Virginia: 25.8%
- at Utah: 19.4%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
The 6-0 Cyclones will likely be 7-0 this time next week — 82.8% likely, to be exact. According to the FPM, they may not run into any real trouble until a road trip against the Utah Utes in the penultimate game of the season.
- vs. Texas Tech: 73.4%
- at Kansas: 79.3%
- vs. Cincinnati: 83.3%
- at Utah: 48.8%
- vs. Kansas State: 63.1%
Prediction for UCF vs. Iowa State
Currently riding a three-game losing streak, head coach Gus Malzahn faces a tough challenge this week. He made significant moves in the transfer portal, but the biggest acquisition has also been the biggest disappointment: former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson.
Malzahn benched Jefferson in favor of true freshman EJ Colson last week—but only for four throws. Then, a new starter took over: former Miami QB Jacurri Brown. While he brought some energy against Cincinnati, Iowa State has had extra time to prepare for his dual-threat abilities.
The Cyclones have won five of their six games by double digits, and Week 8 looks likely to follow that trend. They rank fourth in the FBS with a +9 turnover differential, while UCF sits tied for 95th at -3.
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On top of that, the Knights are tied for 115th in sacks allowed (3.0 per game), while Iowa State ranks tied for 10th (0.83 per game). With Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on track to become the first WR duo in program history to each reach 1,000 yards in a season, the Cyclones’ passing game should establish an early lead without much trouble.
The Cyclones’ moneyline won’t yield a big payout, but they’re expected to cover comfortably. The safer play is the under, as Iowa State is likely to build an early lead and control the clock. UCF’s offense, even with Brown at quarterback, won’t be able to put up enough points to close the gap.
Prediction: Iowa State 31, UCF 10
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