Amidst Week 9 games drawing national spotlight, a notable AAC showdown with potential conference implications awaits as the Tulane Green Wave heads to Denton to face the North Texas Mean Green.
Our Tulane vs. North Texas preview dives into all you need to know, covering the latest betting odds and each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Tulane vs. North Texas Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. North Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -9 - Spread
Tulane -8 - Moneyline
Tulane -310, North Texas +250 - Over/Under
70.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
DATCU Stadium | Denton, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
85 degrees, mostly sunny and warm, 9 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
It’s a first-ever trip to Denton for the Green Wave, but they do so with two previous wins over North Texas in the only matchups between the programs. Last year marked the first time for the Mean Green in the American Athletic Conference, and Tulane showed them why they’re the program at the forefront of the conference. Is there any reason to suspect any change in 2024?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Tulane is a touchdown and change favorite by DraftKings, with the CFN FPM having it closer to a score and a field goal. North Texas is 2-1 covering as an underdog this year, including their thriller against the Memphis Tigers last week. Although Tulane is 4-1 covering as a favorite, the safest bet to take here is the over on the points total.
Only one UNT game has gone under the line in 2024.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 74.9% chance of beating North Texas on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has accurately reflected the Green Wave’s 2024 season so far, with the defeats to the Kansas State Wildcats and Oklahoma Sooners forecasted alongside their five wins in this campaign.
- at North Texas: 74.9%
- at Charlotte: 81.1%
- vs. Temple: 85.9%
- at Navy: 52.5%
- vs. Memphis 52.5%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Green Wave would finish with a 10-2 overall and a perfect AAC record, facilitating a return to the conference championship game. The CFN FPM currently gives Tulane a 33.7% chance of winning the AAC, which would put them in the hunt for a playoff spot.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, North Texas has just a 25.1% chance of beating the Green Wave on Saturday afternoon. In good news for Mean Green fans, our metric has been wrong once for the program this season, favoring the South Alabama Jaguars in a season-opening clash that yielded a 52-38 win for Eric Morris’ side.
- vs. Tulane: 25.1%
- vs. Army: 33.1%
- at UTSA: 50%
- vs. East Carolina: 61.1%
- at Temple: 53.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, North Texas would end the 2024 season with an 8-4 record, a considerable turnaround from the previous campaign. However, that record presumes a road win in a coin-flip game against the UTSA Roadrunners. Nonetheless, bowl eligibility should be attainable.
Prediction for Tulane vs. North Texas
Prepare for an AAC showdown on Saturday afternoon as 5-2 Tulane takes on 5-2 North Texas, with conference championship implications on the line. The Green Wave remains undefeated in the AAC under new head coach Jon Sumrall, while North Texas, sitting on just one conference loss, is very much in the mix.
Will they stay in contention after Saturday’s final whistle? Tulane enters as the favorite, but could North Texas pull off the upset? Who’s got the edge, and where will the game’s key battles unfold?
If you’re a fan of offensive fireworks (and honestly, who isn’t?), this is a game you won’t want to miss. North Texas has been lighting up scoreboards all season, ranking ninth nationally and second in the AAC with 41.3 points per game. While it’s easy to dismiss high numbers as padded stats, the Mean Green has surpassed 40 points in all but two games.
Much of this offensive punch comes from the influence of offensive coordinator Jordan Davis, whose reputation for high-powered attacks has only grown with this 2024 North Texas squad. Quarterback Chandler Morris leads the nation in pass attempts (294) and sits atop the AAC in passing yards (2,424) and touchdowns (23) through Week 8.
Leading this pass-happy attack are nine players with double-digit receptions, highlighted by former Washington State WR DT Sheffield, who boasts 565 yards and nine touchdowns. The battle between North Texas’ aerial assault and a Tulane defense that leads the AAC in interceptions (10), ranks second in turnover margin per game (+1.57), and sits third in total sacks (18) will be a pivotal matchup.
On the defensive side, North Texas has its own playmaker in DB Ridge Texada (five pass breakups, one interception), though the defense overall is a step behind Tulane’s, which features impact players like Patrick Jenkins and Adin Huntington. Allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 10th in the AAC, the Mean Green defense may find it challenging to contain Tulane’s running back Makhi Hughes (744 yards, 10 total scores) and their ground-oriented attack.
Meanwhile, QB Darian Mensah, who leads the AAC in yards per attempt, rounds out Tulane’s balanced offense.
Tulane holds the edge, but this one promises plenty of action for college football fans on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Tulane 37, North Texas 33
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