Not every Week 12 game carries consequences, but when the Tulane Green Wave and Navy Midshipmen meet on Saturday afternoon, there’s plenty to play for, with a place in the AAC Championship Game on the line for both teams.
Who comes out on top? Our Tulane vs. Navy prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Tulane vs. Navy Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. Navy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -6 - Spread
Tulane -7 - Moneyline
Tulane -245, Navy +200 - Over/Under
54 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium | Annapolis, MD - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, mostly sunny and windy, 17 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Find a feather, because you’ll need it to split the head-to-head between Tulane and Navy. The two teams are completely even at 12 wins each ahead of the 26th edition of this matchup and tied in their first encounter in 1949. The Midshipmen hold a two-game win streak over the Green Wave, but much as changed since 2020, and Tulane enters Saturday’s clash as the favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Jon Sumrall’s team is on one of the hottest streaks in the nation. They’ve won the last seven, covered the spread in all but one of those games, and are 8-2 overall and against the spread. Meanwhile, Navy has lost two of their last three while failing to cover against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Rice Owls. The Mids will be competitive, but Tulane might be tough to stop.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 66.4% chance of beating Navy on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Green Wave this fall, accurately projecting their losses to the Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas State Wildcats among a sea of forecast wins.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Tulane in the 2024 season:
- at Navy: 66.4%
- vs. Memphis: 67.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Green Wave would end the year with a 10-2 record, including a perfect 8-0 AAC campaign. Jon Sumrall’s team has a 46.7% chance of winning the conference, according to the CFN FPM, with a 9.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Navy a 33.6% chance of beating Tulane in Week 12. Our metric has been largely accurate in projecting the fate of the Midshipmen this fall. However, it did project a win against Rice and defeat to the USF Bulls.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 season:
- vs. Tulane: 33.6%
- at East Carolina: 53.8%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 33.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Midshipmen would end the year with an 8-4 overall record, including a 6-2 AAC campaign. That would be the program’s best conference performance since 2019. The team hasn’t been to a bowl game since that season either.
Prediction for Tulane vs. Navy
If Tulane wins on Saturday, the Green Wave will secure a spot in the AAC Championship Game against the Army Black Knights. One of the Group of Five frontrunners in recent seasons, the Green Wave were somewhat slept on early in the season, but after entering the College Football Playoff Rankings this week, they’re making a late-year run as good as any in the nation.
Navy needs to win to stay alive in the AAC race. Their shock loss to Rice put the program on the back foot, but a win here could set up the possibility of an Army-Navy Game double-header (or even a Tulane vs. Navy rematch) to end the year. The Midshipmen are underdogs, but who has the upper hand in this rivalry matchup, and where will the key battles be fought?
Tulane hasn’t lost since Week 3, after back-to-back Power Four disappointments. Those Oklahoma and Kansas State defeats provide a pointer to how Navy could come away with a surprise win on Saturday. The Green Wave gave up 397 total rushing yards and four rushing scores across those games while turning the ball over four times and struggling to establish the run.
You know who runs the ball really well? You guessed it, Navy.
Although Drew Cronic’s innovative offense allows Blake Horvath to dial up some deep passes, their system is still rooted in the option, and the Midshipmen are averaging 259.11 rushing yards per game. Horvath has averaged 6.8 yards per carry, while Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana, Eli Heidenreich, and Brandon Chatman all offer differing dangerous skill sets out of the backfield.
Meanwhile, forcing turnovers has been the modus operandi of the Midshipmen in 2024. No team in the AAC has more than Navy, led by Dashaun Peele’s conference-high four interceptions and Rayuan Lane’s AAC-leading three forced fumbles. They fly to the football with vicious intentions, resulting in a defensive unit that has allowed just 156.33 rushing yards and 22.2 points per game.
That said, since Tulane’s two defeats, they’ve become one of the more solid defensive units in the nation, led by a pair of game-wrecking defensive tackles in Patrick Jenkins and Adin Huntington. Meanwhile, their offensive identity is clear, with running back Makhi Hughes emerging as a legitimate star and Darian Mensah leading the AAC in multiple QB metrics.
This game has the potential to be as tight as the history of the matchup, and Brian Newberry’s team could overcome the odds, especially on home turf. Yet, it feels like the Midshipmen might struggle to ride out this most dangerous of Green Wave’s.
Prediction: Tulane 31, Navy 23
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