Not every Week 12 matchup has high stakes, but Saturday afternoon’s clash between the Tulane Green Wave and Navy Midshipmen is loaded with implications. Both teams are fighting for a spot in the AAC Championship Game, making this a showdown with plenty on the line.
Who will prevail? Our Tulane vs. Navy prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Tulane vs. Navy Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. Navy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -6 - Spread
Tulane -7 - Moneyline
Tulane -258, Navy +210 - Over/Under
50 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium | Annapolis, MD - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, mostly sunny and windy, 17 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Find a feather, because you’ll need it to split the head-to-head between Tulane and Navy. The two teams are completely even at 12 wins each ahead of the 26th edition of this matchup and tied in their first encounter in 1949. The Midshipmen hold a two-game win streak over the Green Wave, but much as changed since 2020, and Tulane enters Saturday’s clash as the favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Jon Sumrall’s team is on one of the hottest streaks in the nation. They’ve won the last seven, covered the spread in all but one of those games, and are 8-2 overall and against the spread. Meanwhile, Navy has lost two of their last three while failing to cover against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Rice Owls. The Mids will be competitive, but Tulane might be tough to stop.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 66.4% chance of beating Navy on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Green Wave this fall, accurately projecting their losses to the Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas State Wildcats among a sea of forecast wins.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Tulane in the 2024 season:
- at Navy: 66.4%
- vs. Memphis: 67.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Green Wave would end the year with a 10-2 record, including a perfect 8-0 AAC campaign. Jon Sumrall’s team has a 46.7% chance of winning the conference, according to the CFN FPM, with a 9.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Navy a 33.6% chance of beating Tulane in Week 12. Our metric has been largely accurate in projecting the fate of the Midshipmen this fall. However, it did project a win against Rice and defeat to the USF Bulls.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 season:
- vs. Tulane: 33.6%
- at East Carolina: 53.8%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 33.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Midshipmen would end the year with an 8-4 overall record, including a 6-2 AAC campaign. That would be the program’s best conference performance since 2019. The team hasn’t been to a bowl game since that season either.
Prediction for Tulane vs. Navy
If Tulane takes care of business on Saturday, the Green Wave will punch their ticket to the AAC Championship Game to face the Army Black Knights. A perennial Group of Five contender, Tulane may have flown under the radar earlier in the season, but cracking the College Football Playoff Rankings this week signals they’re making a late-season surge as strong as any in the country.
On the other hand, Navy faces a must-win scenario to stay alive in the AAC race. Their stunning loss to Rice has left them scrambling, but a victory here could open the door for an Army-Navy Game doubleheader—or even a Tulane-Navy rematch—to close the season.
Despite being underdogs, the Midshipmen bring a rivalry mentality that always makes this matchup one to watch. So, who holds the advantage, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Since Week 3, Tulane hasn’t tasted defeat. However, their early-season losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State offered a blueprint for how Navy might pull off the upset. Across those two games, the Green Wave allowed 397 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns while committing four turnovers and struggling to establish their own ground game.
Who runs the ball better than almost anyone? Navy, of course.
While Drew Cronic’s innovative offense has added some deep passing options for Blake Horvath, the Midshipmen remain rooted in the option, grinding out an average of 259.11 rushing yards per game. Horvath leads the charge with 6.8 yards per carry, while Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana, Eli Heidenreich, and Brandon Chatman all bring unique skills to Navy’s potent backfield.
Defensively, Navy has thrived by creating chaos. They lead the AAC in forced turnovers, thanks to Dashaun Peele’s conference-high four interceptions and Rayuan Lane’s AAC-best three forced fumbles. Their aggressive approach has held opponents to just 156.33 rushing yards and 22.2 points per game—a formula that could give Tulane trouble.
That said, since their early-season losses, the Green Wave have solidified into one of the nation’s more complete teams. Their defense is anchored by disruptive tackles Patrick Jenkins and Adin Huntington, while their offense is powered by running back Makhi Hughes, who has blossomed into a star, and quarterback Darian Mensah, the AAC’s leader in several key metrics.
This rivalry showdown has the makings of a nail-biter, with Brian Newberry’s Navy squad poised to defend their home turf and potentially defy the odds. Yet, this Tulane team feels like a force of nature—one that might just be too overwhelming for even the Midshipmen to weather.
Prediction: Tulane 31, Navy 23
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