Those fixated solely on the College Football Playoff might dismiss the AAC Championship Game as meaningless after the penultimate rankings. Just don’t tell that to the Tulane Green Wave and Army Black Knights. Their focus on Friday night is singular: claim the conference crown.
Who takes the title? Our Tulane vs. Army prediction breaks down the latest odds, win probabilities, and picks the winner of the AAC Championship Game.
Tulane vs. Army Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -1 - Spread
Tulane -4.5 - Moneyline
Tulane -205, Army +170 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game time
8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Michie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
25 degrees, partly cloudy, 13 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
While Army transitioned to the AAC for the first time in 2024, there have been 23 previous matchups between the Green Wave and Black Knights. The last encounter came during the disrupted 2020 season, and Tulane extended its winning streak over Army to four games dating back to 2015. As a result, the program carries a 13-9-1 head-to-head advantage in to this game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Tulane enters the game as the favorite, and they’ve just dropped one game in that situation all season (the Week 14 defeat to the Memphis Tigers). They’re also 8-2 covering the spread as a favorite. Meanwhile, Army has been an underdog just once this year, when they were defeated by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They’ve failed to cover in four of their last five games.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
Tulane is the marginal favorite to win the AAC Championship Game, according to the CFN FPM. Our metric gives the Green Wave a 50.6% chance of winning. The probability leans slightly towards Sumrall’s team due to their high-scoring power.
- at Army: 50.6%
Army’s Winning Probability
Entering the game, the CFN FPM gives the Black Knights a 49.4% chance of victory to win the American title. Playing at home in Michie Stadium boosts the service academy with the metric. However, this is as close to a pick ‘em as there has been all season.
- vs. Tulane: 49.4%
Prediction for Tulane vs. Army
As it stands, this game feels like a true toss-up. Both teams excel at running the ball and controlling the tempo, making for an intriguing matchup.
Army unsurprisingly runs the ball on over 85% of their plays, leading the nation with an average of 306.3 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Bryson Daily has been the engine of the Black Knights’ triple-option attack, racking up 1,348 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns while also adding 860 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The Black Knights will lean heavily on Daily’s decision-making and playmaking ability as they face a tough Tulane defense. The Green Wave has been stout against the run, allowing just 126.1 rushing yards per game.
Defensive lineman Patrick Jenkins has been a force in the trenches with seven tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, while linebackers Tyler Grubbs and Sam Howard anchor the unit as the team’s leading tacklers.
Tulane, however, has been equally impressive on offense. Ranking in the top five nationally with 37.9 points per game, the Green Wave is powered by quarterback Darian Mensah, who leads the conference in both completion percentage (65.6%) and yards per attempt (9.6).
Mensah has thrown for 2,514 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions, spreading the ball around effectively to his playmakers, including Mario Williams, who leads the team with 831 receiving yards.
Adding to their offensive firepower, Tulane’s ground game has been no slouch either. Makhi Hughes has been a workhorse, leading the conference with 243 carries for 1,306 yards and 15 touchdowns.
For Army to claim their first conference championship, they’ll need to contain Tulane’s explosive offensive plays. The Black Knights’ defense has been excellent, holding opponents to just 15.9 points per game. But this Tulane offense is arguably the best they’ve faced all year, outside of Notre Dame.
Ultimately, that challenge might be too much for Army’s defense to handle. Tulane’s balanced, high-powered offense could prove too dynamic, giving the Green Wave the edge in this showdown.
Prediction: Tulane 24, Army 21
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