Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction: Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

Thursday night college football delivers up a Sun Belt showdown. Step this way for the latest odds, DFS picks, and a Troy vs. South Alabama prediction.

Before the season, most people would have bookmarked the Troy Trojans and South Alabama Jaguars Week 10 Sun Belt showdown as being tantamount to a Sun Belt West title game. While their seasons have taken different trajectories, this rivalry game might still have significant consequences for the direction of the conference.

Who emerges victorious? Ahead of the game, we’ve got the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and a Troy vs. South Alabama prediction.

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Troy vs. South Alabama Betting and DFS Preview

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023. Want to take advantage of the Troy vs. South Alabama odds? Visit the College Football Network live college football odds page to place bets in your state.

  • Spread
    Troy -4
  • Moneyline
    Troy -185, South Alabama +154
  • Over/Under
    44.5 points
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    41 degrees, 5-7 mph winds, clear
  • How to Watch
    ESPN2, FuboTV


Dec. 24, 12:00 AM



South Alabama Jaguars


Eastern Michigan Eagles


Odds updated Dec 24th, 2023, 3:33 am

Is Troy the team to trust on Thursday night, or will South Alabama serve up a Sun Belt shock? If you’re going to take advantage of the Troy vs. South Alabama odds, consider some of the following factors before you part with your hard-earned cash.

Troy hasn’t lost this annual matchup since 2017 and comes into the game as the favorite with an 8-3 head-to-head advantage over the Jaguars. The Trojans are also riding a five-game win streak in the 2023 college football season and are well-placed to continue that run on Thursday night. They’ve lost just one game as the moneyline favorite so far this year — a matchup with recent FBS addition, James Madison.

MORE: List of College Football Rivalry Games

South Alabama has some positive experiences against the spread as an underdog this season, including covering in the standout win over Oklahoma State. However, they’ve only covered the spread in three of eight games this year, while Troy has covered in each of their last four games. All but one of their wins this year has been by more than the four-point line.

Last season, the two teams played an incredible defensive slugfest that ended 10-6. However, prior to that, the previous four matchups all comfortably cleared the 44.5-point line. With two strong rushing defenses that arguably nullify the offensive strengths, it’s tempting to hedge the under, but our Troy vs. South Alabama prediction suggests a potential over scenario.

Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

Troy Depth Chart | South Alabama Depth Chart

  • QB Carter Bradley, South Alabama ($8,500)
  • QB Gunnar Watson, Troy ($8,200)
  • RB La’Damian Webb, South Alabama ($10,200)
  • RB Kimani Vidal, Troy  ($9,200)
  • RB Kentrel Bullock, South Alabama ($6,300)
  • RB Damien Taylor, Troy ($5,300)
  • RB Marco Lee, South Alabama ($5,200)
  • RB Asa Martin, Troy ($4,900)
  • WR Caullin Lacy, South Alabama ($9,800)
  • WR Jabre Barber, Troy ($8,200)
  • WR Jamaal Pritchett, South Alabama ($8,000)
  • WR Chris Lewis, Troy ($7,700)
  • WR Deshon Stoudemire, Troy ($6,600)
  • WR Devonte Ross, Troy ($5,800)
  • WR Landon Parker, Troy ($5,400)
  • WR Javon Ivory, South Alabama ($5,100)
  • TE Ethan Conner, Troy ($5,500)
  • TE Lincoln Sefcik, South Alabama ($5,300)
  • TE DJ Thomas-Jones, South Alabama ($5,200)
  • TE Brody Dalton, Troy ($5,000)
  • TE Clayton Ollendieck, Troy ($4,900)

There are three college football games on Thursday to compile your DFS team from this week. If you’re new to DFS, Fanduel Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a “superflex” that can be any of the above. This spot may also be a tight end.

Your Thursday night lineup could be dominated by Troy vs. South Alabama picks. This clash contains some of the highest-scoring fantasy players in not just the Sun Belt West, but across the other matchups that make up this slate. The defenses on display may neuter some of the production, but the potential for big-scoring performances is there.

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While Gunnar Watson and Carter Bradley are the QB4 and QB5 of the Sun Belt West, respectively — and legitimate options for your QB spot — the night belongs to the two running backs. La’Damian Webb has 156 fantasy points ahead of this game, while Kimani Vidal has tallied 155.4 points. They’re RB2 and RB3 in the Sun Belt West. If you can afford both, take them both.

Although we expect a blow-for-blow bruiser between two great running backs, South Alabama boasts the conference’s standout pass catcher in WR Caullin Lacy. The Troy pass defense is no joke, but as the clear go-to guy in the South Alabama offense, Lacy will see plenty of targets and has the big-play ability to earn you some decent points. Additionally, WR Jabre Barber is the guy for Troy.

Prediction for Troy vs. South Alabama

Okay, so we’ve furnished you with the Troy vs. South Alabama odds and some DFS picks. Now, it’s time to close this thing out with our prediction. Can Troy continue their march towards another Sun Belt Championship Game with a sixth straight win, or is South Alabama set to play spoiler and kick start their tilt at the title game?

South Alabama’s 4-4 overall and 2-2 Sun Belt record are certainly not what we expected from the Jaguars this season. However, there are elements of Kane Wommack’s team performing exactly as expected. Averaging 33.5 points per game, they’re one of the top-scoring offenses in the Sun Belt, while moving the ball well both through the air and on the ground.

Bradley and Lacy continue to have a deadly relationship, and the Jaguars’ quarterback is outperforming his standout 2022 season in a number of QB metrics. No other Group of Five wide receiver has more receiving yards than Lacy. They’re a handful for any defense to handle. Then, you throw in RB Webb, who is as dominant as any back you’ll find across the country.

Troy has their own game-changing running back in Vidal, who is third in the nation for rushing yards and rushing yards per game. He’s also added value to the Trojans offense as a receiving outlet for Watson, who is enjoying a career year. Currently averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, he’s on pace to outpace career-best yardage and TDs — with just four INTs.

With two impressive quarterbacks and dominant running games, the deciding factor in this game could be defense. South Alabama has allowed 21.1 points per game, inflated by four games where they gave up 30-plus points. However, they’ve limited opposition rushers to 3.43 yards per carry and have the third-ranked passing defense in completion percentage.

Yet, they can’t compare to the Troy defensive unit, which continues to be the strength of their team.

The Trojans have the second-best rushing defense in the Sun Belt, have limited opposition quarterbacks to just seven touchdowns all year, and currently rank 17th in the nation for scoring defense. That could, and should, be the difference maker for the reigning champions.

Prediction: Troy 28, South Alabama 21

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