With the changes to the College Football Playoff format for the 2024 college football season, a team from the Group of Five is guaranteed at least one seat at the postseason table. That we know.
What we don’t know, however, is which Group of Five team will make the Playoffs this season.
College Football Playoff Projections: Group of Five Representative
Midway through the year, it becomes clearer every day who the key contenders are at the top of those five conferences, with the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter giving the following 10 teams the best chance of making the playoff:
- James Madison Dukes: 44.2%
- Boise State Broncos: 33.4%
- Army Black Knights: 31.9%
- Liberty Flames: 25.2%
- UNLV Rebels: 22.1%
- Memphis Tigers: 20.2%
- Navy Midshipmen: 11.3%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: 11%
- Texas State Bobcats: 9.6%
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 6.9%
However, there are several key matchups set to take place between now and the end of November that will shape the race to the College Football Playoff.
We’ve picked out three of the most pivotal for this week’s edition of Triple Option Thursday.
Boise State vs. UNLV (October 25)
Boise State sits in pole position in the race for the College Football Playoff as currently the highest-ranked Group of Five programs. With a defeat to the Oregon Ducks (and a close one at that) as the only blemish on their resume, Spencer Danielson’s team is currently ranked 15th by the AP Poll.
MORE: College Football Strength of Schedule for 2024
They’re on a bye this week before traveling to Las Vegas to take on a UNLV team that has proven already this year that they can mix it with Power Four programs. Barry Odom’s team defeated Houston and Kansas earlier this year and took Syracuse to overtime.
The winner of the Mountain West should be a leading playoff candidate, and this clash could be a preview of the title game.
Tulane vs. Navy (November 16)
While most college football analysts are fixated on Army and Navy being undefeated and both ranked for the first time since 1960 (which is awesome), several matchups come before their annual rivalry game or a potential AAC Championship Game clash between the two service academies that have a more significant bearing on the postseason landscape.
Although both teams must navigate past Notre Dame before the end of the year, Navy’s all-AAC clash with Tulane should attract significant attention. The Green Wave has been at the forefront of the conference in recent years and still has title aspirations of its own.
It might not be as sizeable of a scalp as in recent years, but adding Tulane to a resume that already features a win over Memphis would be a feather in the cap for the Midshipmen.
Western Kentucky vs. Liberty (November 23)
Liberty hasn’t been defeated in the regular season since the end of the 2022 campaign. Under Jamey Chadwell, the program has become the Group of Five standard-bearer and represented the level in the New Year’s Six Bowl to conclude an impressive 2023 season.
While it has been a little tougher this year, they remain undefeated heading into Week 9 (they have a bye in Week 8).
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However, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are emerging as a Conference USA contender this season. Tyson Helton’s team has been impressive (if you take the Alabama game off the table), and in quarterback Caden Veltkamp, they have a playmaker who can go toe-to-toe with Liberty’s Kaidon Salter.
If Western Kentucky wins this game, it will change the entire postseason landscape.
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