The Vanderbilt Commodores exemplify the increased parity brought about by the transfer portal era and Name, Image, and Likeness in college football. Clark Lea started with a 2-22 record in SEC play, but this season, the Commodores are already 2-1 in conference matchups and have several chances to add more wins.
But can they pose a challenge to a Texas Longhorns team looking to rebound from a recent loss? Find out in our Texas vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -12 - Spread
Texas -18 - Moneyline
Texas -900, Vanderbilt +600 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
The early spread is Texas -18.5. The line has settled here after various sportsbooks opened at different numbers, with some moving down from -19 and others moving up from -18. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 36-17 in favor of the Longhorns.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas’ Winning Probability
FPM isn’t quite as high on the Longhorns as Vegas’ spread, giving Texas an 81.1% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 12 points. The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in every game until a tough final game at Texas A&M.
- vs. Florida: 93.1%
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 92.8%
- at Texas A&M: 53.4%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
The schedule looks substantially different now than it did two months ago for the Commodores, as there are several winnable games left. The Commodores have an 18.9% chance to beat Texas, but FPM favors the Commodores in two of their remaining games.
- at Auburn: 65.1%
- vs. South Carolina: 61.9%
- at LSU: 17.2%
- vs. Tennessee: 25.8%
Prediction for Texas vs. Vanderbilt
I’m still uncertain about both the Longhorns and Commodores, which makes this a tough game to evaluate.
It wasn’t a shock to see the Longhorns struggle against Georgia last week, but their complete lack of offense in the first half was definitely concerning. Texas had one of the easiest schedules in the country during the first half of the season, especially in hindsight, given what we now know about Michigan.
So far, the data points for Texas are a series of blowout wins against overmatched teams and a heavy loss to one of the nation’s top teams. I’m mildly intrigued by how Steve Sarkisian handles the quarterback “battle” moving forward. I understand why he brought in Arch Manning on Saturday, but the fact that it didn’t change much and only lasted two possessions is puzzling.
For now, Quinn Ewers remains the starter, as he prepares to take on a Vanderbilt team that’s been one of the season’s big surprises. But the Commodores have been inconsistent, mixing a loss to Georgia State with wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky.
I’m particularly interested to see how the Commodores fare against a team with strong units on both sides of the ball, as most of their games have been against teams that are lopsided. Additionally, I’m curious about how quarterback Diego Pavia handles a consistent pass rush from Texas’ formidable defensive front.
The scoreline between Texas and Georgia was misleading, with only one scoring drive over 55 yards. Neither team moved the ball particularly well, and it makes me wonder if there’s a way to beat Texas that doesn’t rely on the offense gifting the opposition short fields.
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That said, I think it’s telling that the Longhorns have struggled significantly against their first two opponents with balanced strengths.
I don’t expect Texas’ offense to go 2-for-15 on third downs again, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that has trouble on that down.
That said, we haven’t seen this Vanderbilt offense be completely shut down yet, and I think the Commodores do enough to cover. I expect a game similar to last week, but tighter, with more offense and the Longhorns coming out on top.
Prediction: Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20
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