The Vanderbilt Commodores are a prime example of the growing parity in college football, thanks to the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness. Clark Lea began with a tough 2-22 record in SEC play, but this season, the Commodores are already 2-1 in conference matchups with plenty of opportunities to notch more wins.
But can they stand up to a Texas Longhorns team eager to bounce back from a recent loss? Dive into our Texas vs. Vanderbilt prediction to find out.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -12 - Spread
Texas -18 - Moneyline
Texas -750, Vanderbilt +525 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
The early spread was Texas -18.5. The line has settled around there all week after various sportsbooks opened at different numbers, with some moving down from -19 and others moving up from -18. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 36-17 in favor of the Longhorns.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas’ Winning Probability
FPM isn’t quite as high on the Longhorns as Vegas’ spread, giving Texas an 81.1% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 12 points. The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in every game until a tough final game at Texas A&M.
- vs. Florida: 93.1%
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 92.8%
- at Texas A&M: 53.4%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
The schedule looks substantially different now than it did two months ago for the Commodores, as there are several winnable games left. The Commodores have an 18.9% chance to beat Texas, but FPM favors the Commodores in two of their remaining games.
- at Auburn: 65.1%
- vs. South Carolina: 61.9%
- at LSU: 17.2%
- vs. Tennessee: 25.8%
Prediction for Texas vs. Vanderbilt
I’m still on the fence about both the Longhorns and the Commodores, making this a tricky matchup to break down.
It wasn’t exactly a surprise to see Texas struggle against Georgia last week, but their complete lack of offense in the first half was definitely concerning. Texas had one of the softest schedules in the first half of the season—especially in hindsight, considering what we now know about Michigan.
So far, Texas has racked up blowout wins against weaker teams and a heavy loss to one of the top squads in the nation. I’m mildly intrigued by how Steve Sarkisian manages the quarterback “competition” moving forward. I get why he put in Arch Manning on Saturday, but his quick exit after just two possessions left me scratching my head.
Quinn Ewers is still the starter as Texas prepares to take on a Vanderbilt team that’s been one of the season’s surprises. But the Commodores have had their ups and downs, mixing a loss to Georgia State with wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky.
I’m especially curious to see how the Commodores hold up against a team with strength on both sides of the ball, given that most of their games have been against more one-dimensional teams. I’m also interested in how quarterback Diego Pavia handles Texas’ relentless pass rush.
The final score between Texas and Georgia was a bit misleading, with only one scoring drive over 55 yards. Neither team moved the ball efficiently, making me wonder if there’s a way to beat Texas that doesn’t rely on gift-wrapped short fields.
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That said, it’s notable that Texas has struggled considerably against the only two teams they’ve faced with more balanced strengths.
I don’t expect Texas’ offense to go 2-for-15 on third downs again, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that tends to struggle in those situations.
That being said, we haven’t seen Vanderbilt’s offense get completely shut down yet, and I think the Commodores keep it close. I’m expecting a game similar to last week, but with a bit more offense, and Texas ultimately coming out on top.
Prediction: Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20
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