The Texas Longhorns are in the SEC pound seat for the College Football Playoff after the latest rankings release but head out on the road in Week 12 for a game against an Arkansas Razorbacks team that spews pure hatred for a long-running rival.
Can the Razorbacks hold their own? Our Texas vs. Arkansas prediction covers it all—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -13.5 - Moneyline
Texas -520, Arkansas +390 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday afternoon sees the 80th edition of a rivalry that has no name but is as bitter for at least one of the teams as any in college football. While Arkansas has won the last two meetings (2021, 2014), Texas holds a significant head-to-head advantage, taking a 56-23 series lead into the Week 12 outing. Unsurprisingly, they’re favored to increase the gap this Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, there has already been some movement in the Texas vs. Arkansas odds. The Longhorns opened as a 15.5-point favorite, but the line has come down to -13.5 by midweek. That falls in line with the initial CFN FPM spread, giving a good marker. However, our prediction anticipates a much tighter battle. Texas has covered just twice in their last five games this fall.
Texas’ Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Longhorns are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has an 83.5% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Longhorns, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- at Texas A&M: 61.9%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 16.5% chance of beating the Longhorns at home. FPM thinks the Razorbacks will make a bowl, as they’re 5-4 and heavily favored in a game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. But to get to a winning regular season, they’ll need to pull off an upset.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.5%
- at Missouri: 32.3%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arkansas
While the Longhorns have looked impressive this year, they’ve caught several teams at the right time. Texas faced the Florida Gators with its third-string quarterback and the Vanderbilt Commodores when Diego Pavia was banged up.
Outside of the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in which the Longhorns didn’t look particularly strong, they’ve gotten off easy with their schedule in their first year in the SEC.
Accordingly, I think Arkansas could be the biggest test all season for the Longhorns.
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The Razorbacks got blown out by the Ole Miss Rebels before the bye week, but I sometimes grade that game on a curve. Some coaches would pull back, but Lane Kiffin likes to dig once he finds something that works to run up the score and help his team’s metrics.
The Razorbacks got into a negative game script and could never recover.
Flush it and move on. And with a bye week in between, I think Sam Pittman and Co. can really make this a game against the third-ranked (second-seed) Longhorns.
Texas hasn’t faced a true dual-threat quarterback this season, dodging Lagway and Pavia (at least while he was 100%). Even hobbled Pavia ran for 67 yards against the Longhorns and really made life difficult for the Longhorns defense. Had Pavia not thrown two interceptions in that game, Vanderbilt likely would have won.
I don’t think the Razorbacks win outright, but it would not surprise me if they did. Taylen Green can pressure the Longhorns’ pass rush by using his legs to put the defense on the back foot. If he and the running backs can hit a few big plays on the ground, it will open up the passing game.
This is a game that could really shake up the SEC — and College Football Playoff — standings.
Ultimately, I think the Longhorns’ offense will be enough to help them prevail late, but it will be much closer than people think, especially if Arkansas can turn yards into points.
Prediction: Texas 31, Arkansas 28
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