The Arkansas Razorbacks have had a weird season. From losing a game in which they absolutely dominated the Oklahoma State Cowboys to upsetting the Tennessee Volunteers only to get blown out in two of the next three, it’s been a roller coaster.
Things won’t get easier on Saturday, as they host the Texas Longhorns in a game that is a conference matchup again for the first time in three decades. Can the Razorbacks hold their own? Find out what we think in this Texas vs. Arkansas prediction.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -15.5 - Moneyline
Texas -750, Arkansas +525 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, Noon ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, Ark. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Don’t understate the rivalry aspect of this game just because these teams have only met twice in the past 16 years. Especially on the Arkansas side, there’s a strong dislike for the opposition. The opening line has Texas as a favorite of just over two touchdowns.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 56.5 points, Vegas expects a fairly high-scoring game. The implied final score is close to 36-21 in favor of the Longhorns.
Texas’ Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Longhorns are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Texas has an 83.5% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Longhorns, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- at Texas A&M: 61.9%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 16.5% chance of beating the Longhorns at home. FPM thinks the Razorbacks will make a bowl, as they’re 5-4 and heavily favored in a game against Louisiana Tech. But to get to a winning regular season, they’ll need to pull off an upset.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.5%
- at Missouri: 32.3%
Prediction for Texas vs. Arkansas
While the Longhorns have looked impressive this year, I think they’ve been very timely with when they’ve caught several teams. Texas faced Florida with its third-string quarterback and Vanderbilt when Diego Pavia was banged up.
Outside of a Georgia loss in which the Longhorns didn’t look particularly strong, they’ve gotten off easy with their schedule in their first year in the SEC.
Accordingly, I think Arkansas could be the biggest test all season for the Longhorns.
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The Razorbacks got blown out by the Ole Miss Rebels before the bye week, but I sometimes grade that game on a curve. Where some coaches would pull back, Lane Kiffin likes to dig once he finds something that works so he can run up the score and help his team’s metrics.
The Razorbacks got into a negative game script and could never recover.
Flush it and move on. And with a bye week in between, I think Sam Pittman and Co. can really make this a game against the top five Longhorns.
Texas hasn’t faced a true dual-threat quarterback this season, dodging Lagway and Pavia (at least while he was 100%). Even hobbled Pavia was able to run for 67 yards against the Longhorns and really made life difficult for the Longhorns defense. Had Pavia not thrown two interceptions in that game, Vanderbilt would have likely beaten the Longhorns.
I don’t think the Razorbacks win outright, but it would not surprise me if they did. Taylen Green has the opportunity to put pressure on the Longhorns pass rush by using his legs to put the defense on the back foot. If he and the running backs can hit a few big plays on the ground, it will open up the passing game.
This is a game that could really shake up the SEC — and College Football Playoff — standings.
Ultimately, I think the Longhorns’ offense will be enough to help them prevail late, but it’s going to be a lot closer than people think, especially if Arkansas can turn yards into points.
Prediction: Texas 31, Arkansas 28
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