The Lonestar Showdown is back for the first time since 2011, and it’s bringing the heat. With SEC Championship Game implications on the line, the rivalry clash between the Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies headlines the final week of the 2024 college football regular season as its most anticipated matchup.
Who comes out on top? Our Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they cap off an unforgettable 2024 campaign.
Texas vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -3 - Spread
Texas -4.5 - Moneyline
Texas -198, Texas A&M +164 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
After over a decade of dodging each other as out-of-conference opponents, Texas’ move to the SEC reunites the Aggies and the Longhorns and rekindles their passionate rivalry. Texas A&M has been at a significant disadvantage historically, heading into Saturday’s encounter on the wrong end of a 76-37-5 head-to-head record. They’re considered an underdog ahead of the game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It speaks volumes about the job that head coach Mike Elko has done this year that the Aggies are an underdog for the first time this season. Meanwhile, Texas has been favored in each of their 11 games, dropping one game to the Georgia Bulldogs. They’ve only covered the spread twice this year against SEC opposition, which could be something to watch for on Saturday evening.
Texas’ Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Longhorns, favoring them by about three points. That translates to a winning probability of 57.4%. While the Longhorns are likely in the College Football Playoff, I would not rule out the committee dropping them substantially if they lose by a large margin or lose again in the SEC Championship Game.
- at Texas A&M: 57.4%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Aggies are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 42.6%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and due to crazy tie-breaking scenarios, the Aggies can make the SEC Championship with a win.
- vs. Texas: 42.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Texas A&M
I’m genuinely fascinated by this matchup.
While SEC media and fans often point fingers at the schedules of teams like Penn State, Indiana, and just about anyone in the ACC or Big 12, Texas’ schedule deserves just as much scrutiny.
If the favorites win next week, the Longhorns will enter this game with victories over just two teams with winning records: Colorado State and Florida. And let’s not forget, the Gators started a walk-on quarterback.
That means no wins against Top 25 teams and a double-digit home loss to the only ranked team they’ve faced.
Texas is a good team—but are they a great team?
We’ll find out on Saturday.
The Longhorns have cruised through their schedule largely because no one, outside of Georgia, has managed to apply consistent pressure. Against the Bulldogs, Texas folded under the heat. Quinn Ewers faced pressure on 25 of 58 dropbacks, was sacked seven times, and the Longhorns mustered just 87 passing yards under duress. Even Arch Manning, thrust in when Steve Sarkisian misdiagnosed the problem, couldn’t solve it.
Now, Texas faces an Aggies’ defensive front that’s credited with 194 pressures this season. Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart, future NFL edge rushers, anchor a unit that could give the Longhorns’ offense fits. I’m especially intrigued to see how Texas handles the chaos.
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Offensively, I believe the Aggies can lean on their running game to control the clock and limit possessions. The key question: Can Texas avoid negative plays and stay efficient with fewer opportunities to score?
Marcel Reed has been steady at quarterback for the Aggies, protecting the football and adding a dual-threat element Texas hasn’t encountered this season. If this game turns into a shootout, A&M might not have the firepower to keep up.
But if their defense can disrupt Texas’ rhythm, I really like the Aggies’ chances at home.
The matchups favor A&M. On offense, they have an edge on the interior, and defensively, their front could dominate across the board. If the Aggies stay disciplined and avoid costly mistakes, their style of play has the potential to frustrate Texas all game long.
Texas A&M is well-coached and won’t roll over after a disappointing loss to Auburn. I like the Aggies at home—not just to cover, but to upset their rivals outright.
For Texas to win, it’ll need turnovers or explosive plays in the passing game. If the Aggies can eliminate those big swings, College Station could be celebrating a massive victory that clears a path to the College Football Playoff for A&M.
Take the Aggies and lean under. Elko will aim to drain the life out of this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he succeeds, leaving Texas players, coaches, and fans reeling in a low-scoring loss.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Texas 21
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