Only eight teams in college football are still undefeated, and yet the Iowa State Cyclones remain overlooked. It could be their lack of statement wins or the absence of commanding performances, or maybe the low expectations from preseason still shadow them. Either way, they’re unbeaten—and underappreciated.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders, meanwhile, have experienced a season full of highs and lows. Could they be the team to end Iowa State’s perfect streak this Saturday? Check out our Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction to see if we think the Red Raiders have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -9.5 - Spread
Iowa State -13.5 - Moneyline
Iowa State -520, Texas Tech +390 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, rainy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Last week’s results encapsulate each team’s entire season. The Red Raiders lost a game they absolutely should have won, botching an end-of-game situation in which they had the ball in field-goal range, down one, at the end of the game and never attempted a kick.
Iowa State, on the other hand, was outplayed by UCF and still managed to win late.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cyclones are just over two-touchdown favorites. With a total of 56.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 34-20 in favor of Iowa State.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 5-3, the Red Raiders are one win away from bowl eligibility but have stalled in recent weeks, taking back-to-back losses to Baylor and TCU. That’s hurt their season’s outlook.
According to CFN’s FPM, Texas Tech has a win probability of just 24.5% in this game. The final three games are true toss-ups, meaning there are a wide range of potential outcomes for the year.
- at Iowa State: 24.5%
- vs. Colorado: 50.6%
- at Oklahoma State: 48.8%
- vs. West Virginia: 52.5%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa State has a 75.5% chance of overcoming the Red Raiders at home. If the Cyclones can pull out the win on Saturday, it won’t be time to put them on watch for an undefeated season, but they will likely be favored in their final four games.
- vs. Texas Tech: 75.5%
- at Kansas: 75.5%
- vs. Cincinnati: 82.6%
- at Utah: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas State: 55.6%
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech’s season has been a rollercoaster defensively. The Red Raiders have allowed 35 points in five of their eight games, including all three losses, and just as they seemed to find some stability, they surrendered 59 points to Baylor two weeks ago.
To complicate matters, quarterback Behren Morton exited the last game with an injury, a setback that proved costly in Texas Tech’s narrow defeat. True freshman Will Hammond stepped in with poise, but a late-game fumble erased their shot at a potential game-winning field goal.
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Morton’s injury appears to involve his non-throwing shoulder or collarbone, and his status remains uncertain for Saturday’s matchup.
In the end, though, it might not make a difference.
Iowa State narrowly avoided an upset against UCF two weeks ago, overcoming a 14-point deficit in the third quarter and an eight-point gap in the fourth to scrape out a win, despite a challenging day for quarterback Rocco Becht.
The Cyclones have shown flexibility, winning both in shootouts and defensive duels. They should be able to move the ball against Texas Tech and reach that 35-point threshold that has haunted the Red Raiders all season.
The line is tricky; 14 points feels about right. While I don’t see the Cyclones blowing out a solid opponent, they should score enough to push the total over, with Texas Tech likely covering.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 28
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