Although the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks have defeated the Texas State Bobcats in 13 of 20 matchups, the last two games have been decided by one point. The 2024 Sun Belt showdown could come down to the final drive once more.
Our Texas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe preview dives into the matchup, delivering key betting insights to help you make the smartest picks.
Texas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe Betting Preview
All Texas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas State -3 - Spread
Texas State -8 - Moneyline
Texas State -325, Louisiana-Monroe +260 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Malone Stadium | Monroe, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, 5 mph winds, thunderstorm - How To Watch
ESPNU
While Texas State is just 2-4 against the spread in its last six games, the program is 7-3 ATS in the previous 10 matchups with ULM. However, the Warhawks are plus money ATS this season, going 4-1 in their last five games.
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The total is similarly dicey, with the under hitting in five of the Bobcats’ past six bouts and the over cashing in four of ULM’s last six.
Texas State’s Winning Probability
The Bobcats are two games out of the Sun Belt title with four weeks remaining. They would need to win out to have a chance, and the FPM likes their odds, giving them over 50% win probabilities in each of their contests down the stretch.
- at UL-Monroe: 55.6%
- vs. Southern Miss: 82.8%
- vs. Georgia State: 82.6%
- at South Alabama: 53.8%
Louisiana-Monroe’s Winning Probability
The Warhawks are a game up on the Bobcats in the West and largely control their own destiny. After facing Texas State, they’ll have a chance to knock off two of the three programs above them in the standings: The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
- vs. Texas State: 44.4%
- at Auburn: 24.9%
- at Arkansas State: 50.4%
- vs. Louisiana: 29.7%
Prediction for Texas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Outside of freshman phenom Ahmad Hardy, who owns a 144-811-7 rushing line, ULM’s offense has struggled to do much of anything this year. The unit is tied for 125 in total offense (303.6 yards per game) and 128th in success rate (35.6%).
QB Aidan Armenta has been fine under center but has thrown for over 150 yards in just one game (186 vs. Southern Miss) and is good for at least one interceptable pass per game.
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The defense has kept the team in games, ranking 41st in third/fourth-down success rate (36.0%) and 47th in EPA per dropback. With Texas State QB Jordan McCloud (leg) questionable to play, the Bobcats could also struggle to move the chains.
Nevertheless, one of these teams is snapping its two-game losing streak, and my money is on the road favorites. Take the Bobcats to win straight up but ULM to cover the more-than-a-touchdown spread in a lower-scoring affair.
Prediction: Texas State 24, Louisiana-Monroe 20
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